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#1
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Re: tough 55 hand
I think villain could of easily backdoored into a flush with hearts and think you have a king or something. Is he the type to semibluff this turn? He could also have something like AQs and have thought his hand was best.
I'd put him on QQ, a flush, or trips kings most likely (It is weird to check the kings twice I agree). I dont like folding here to an unknown, you said you only hand 30 hands on him. What does the massive overbet from this player make you think? |
#2
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Re: tough 55 hand
[ QUOTE ]
What does the massive overbet from this player make you think? [/ QUOTE ] At .5/1 I find it is usually close to the nuts (atleast at party). |
#3
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Re: tough 55 hand
I'm betting the turn a little harder and sure as hell 3-betting
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#4
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Re: tough 55 hand
[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the turn a little harder and sure as hell 3-betting [/ QUOTE ] it seems so obvious the guy has KK or QQ, 3beting is ...bah |
#5
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Re: tough 55 hand
I was originally going to say 3-bet the turn, but then I reconsidered after reading Fallen Hero's post. Now I put the opponent's range at: AA, KK, QQ or AK. Each equally possible.
AA = 6 ways KK = 3 ways QQ = 3 ways AK = 16 ways So, there are 22 hands you beat, and 6 which beat you. This sounds like value-bet time to me. Which brings me back to 3-betting. Who agrees or disagrees with my range & my line? |
#6
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Re: tough 55 hand
[ QUOTE ]
I was originally going to say 3-bet the turn, but then I reconsidered after reading Fallen Hero's post. Now I put the opponent's range at: AA, KK, QQ or AK. Each equally possible. AA = 6 ways KK = 3 ways QQ = 3 ways AK = 16 ways So, there are 22 hands you beat, and 6 which beat you. This sounds like value-bet time to me. Which brings me back to 3-betting. Who agrees or disagrees with my range & my line? [/ QUOTE ] even if they are all equally possible I think AK and AA fold to a turn 3bet while KK and QQ stack you, so I don't think there's any value in that. PS: I don't think they are equally possible but it isn't an easy situation to quantify so I'd probably just do the same math you did and keep a mental note that the situation isn't as favorable as the math will show |
#7
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Re: tough 55 hand
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I think AK and AA fold to a turn 3bet [/ QUOTE ] How often? |
#8
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Re: tough 55 hand
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Who agrees or disagrees with my range & my line? [/ QUOTE ] Although there are more combinations of AA/AK vs KK/QQ, doesn't the action in the hand indicate that KK/QQ is more likely? |
#9
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Re: tough 55 hand
I think you can throw out the combos for AK. This really doesn't smell like it.
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#10
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Re: tough 55 hand
Sure, maybe. But can you quantify that at all?
For example, let's atart with the assumption the the opponent flopped a set of QQ. He open-checked both the flop and the turn. Obviously he doesn't want to "lose customers." NMow let's give that same guy AA and flop him an overpair. Does he still not want to lose customers? What if we give him AK and flop TPTK? Of the later 2 cases (AA and AK), I think it's less likely that AK will be afraid of losing custommers, but it's still quite possible. How possible? 50%? Less/more? Whatever value you come up with, you can simply multiply that by the 16 ways he can have AK, and you can use that adjusted value to compute the EV of your varoius lines. |
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