Betting patterns as tells.

[Cry Me A River]

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Am I thinking about these issues correctly or am I fundamentally confuzzled?


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That's a pretty good summary, however, there's one thing you really, really need to realise.

At low buy-ins, there's not a lot of bluffing. That's because there are many, many donkeys who have no idea what they are doing and will call, call, call. So players who over bluff tend to go broke really quickly. Which means they either stop playing or they stop bluffing. It's poker darwinism.

Therefore, at low buy-ins, the default assumption is "He has it and I'm folding" until I have solid evidence otherwise.

This evidence includes:

A) The guy is a total LAG and/or I've seen him make this kind of move before (Obviously, the more often I've seen him do this, the more likely I am to call)

B) The guy is a thinking player who probably has a read on me as someone who knows how to fold (uncommon situation in a low limit SNG unless you're playing in a 2+2 tournament [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. More common in, say, an MTT where you've been playing at the same table with someone for a long time)

C) Pot, blind and stack size dictate my play regardless of everything else (the pot is huge and his push is small or the pot is huge, my stack is small and the blinds are big, etc)

Regardless, when calling a bluff online, particularly at low buy-ins you can expect to be beat a significant amount so don't do it unless you have a really good reason.