Value bet river with AA? Party 15/30

veganmav · #1 11-01-2005, 01:03 PM

MP1 is 53/8/1.1
BB is 39/12/0.8
(another great party 15/30 game [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I sat one round ago.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero..?

So everything seems standard to me until the river.
I think that BB could definately have somethting dumb like K7-KJ and be afraid of his kicker. A king seems unlikely for MP1, he probably would have played AK and KQ differently. I don't know if he's raising KJ from there preflop, and even if so, It seems like he would have showed some agression somewhere postflop.
Unlikely but still possible, there is a chance that someone either has a baby flush or is slowplaying a flush, but I'm not really worrying about it at this point.
And what are they paying off with if I am ahead?
Maybe someting like JJ or AQ but still..

So, check or bet this river? and how close do you think it is?

And if I bet, what do I do if I get check raised?

DcifrThs · #2 11-01-2005, 01:08 PM

imo this is an easy bet fold to a c'r

Barron

DeeJ · #3 11-01-2005, 01:14 PM

very tempting to chicken out here as you have the chance. But you could easily be up against two busted flush draws or two busted straight draws or silly people playing Qx or even two pair Q8 (ha!). So yeah, bet and fold to a check-raise.

flawless_victory · #4 11-01-2005, 02:27 PM

i dont see how you could check here... you basically have the nuts.

#5 11-01-2005, 02:29 PM

wow...i would chicken out...but bet/fold to c'r sounds much better.

kidcolin · #6 11-01-2005, 02:52 PM

Being against busted draws is no reason to bet.

I vote bet/fold, but for different reasons. You get calls from a lot of pocket pairs, AQ, QJ, etc.

#7 11-01-2005, 02:54 PM

bet/fold is a good line

youre gonna get someone with AQ calling, possibly someone with the ace of diamonds went to the river...

PokerCad · #8 11-01-2005, 06:07 PM

I am sure there is a mathamatical answer, there always is, but if your hand is not strong enough to pay to a river raise isn't check call better for this hand? is there really much value to betting on the small group of hand that will pay you off that you beat? Isn't this one of those instances where TOP recomends checking? enlighten this newbie through my confusion [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

wheeler · #9 11-01-2005, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if your hand is not strong enough to pay to a river raise isn't check call better for this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Many of us find it hard to check/call when closing the action.

SmileyEH · #10 11-01-2005, 06:52 PM

With such high vpip's their agg. isnt actually low. Looks like an easy bet/call to me.

-SmileyEH