Folding the flop for one bet is cool

[SNOWBALL138]

I didn't like my odds on the flop, but mainly I didn't like my position. It could easily be raised behind me. I'm not entirely happy about he 2 spades on the board either, even though I have the K of spades which is nice.

The guy who led the flop was pretty laggy. He was 55/1.2/0 or something like that. My first thought was to raise, but I didn't really think I could push out anyone with middle pair behind me, and I didn't want to fatten the pot so much that I would have to peel the turn when it blanks off.


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 max, 10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

River: (12 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 14 BB

[hobbsmann]

I don't fold this flop. We have two backdoor draws and over cards that might or might not be good, but I'd estimate we have 6ish outs on average and getting 11:1 I don't mind calling even though we aren't closing the action.

Does anybody think this is an ok spot to raise?

[silkyslim]

I just had a microbrew, so im gonna say raise this flop. Laggy arsehole has any 2, so you want to maximize winning chances and protect here. THe backdoor draws tilt me oer the edge. I think folding is a mistake.

[bambi]

I think raising this flop depends on the people behind you are, if they are tight i raise and take a free turn card if i dont hit, then can decide on the river if i want to call with AK UI, however if the opponents behind are a bit aggressive i would hate for this to come back to me having to call 2 more cold.

So on a normal table i call, and then when we hit the best card in the deck for us on the turn, i raise then.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
The guy who led the flop was pretty laggy. He was 55/1.2/0 or something like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's LAGgy?

This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

[The Goober]

I think it all depends on the players behind you. If they are aggro and/or thinking, then folding is probably right b/c you could suffer from serious reverse implied odds or end up being 3-bet with JT and not know where you stand.

If its LP fish, then I think a call is in order.

Either way, I think your right that raising isn't good - too many limpers and too many limping hands could have caught some piece of this and and won't fold.

[SNOWBALL138]

Quote:
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The guy who led the flop was pretty laggy. He was 55/1.2/0 or something like that.


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That's LAGgy?

I got the stats wrong. He was 50/8/1.73. Isn't 1.73 postflop AF high for a 50vpip player? But stats aside, this guy was a super-freak. He liked to get busy with overcards/any pair/draw.

[SNOWBALL138]

Ok, this fold sucks. I have THREE, not 2, backdoor draws to go with my overcards. I have the backdoor bicycle draw, the backdoor broadway draw, and the backdoor flush draw. I guess I need to reread the counting outs section in SSHE and then say ten hail Marys and five Our Fathers.

This is totally a flop raise. I think the lead bettor is often holding cheese, and its somewhat possible that facing the field w/ two cold will at least give middle pair something to think about.

[paperboyNC]

The K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] makes this an easy call. With no spade I might fold. But usually I'd peel one.