Folding the flop for one bet is cool

[SoCalPat]

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This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

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You need to recount your outs.

Easy raise.

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If you see this draw as anything more than a 4 outer you are being too optimistic.

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You can't possibly be serious about folding here.

First, you do have more than four outs. It's not many, but you can make a straight or the nut flush with what you have. There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here.

Second, if you're folding two overcards on the flop every time you're bet into getting 11-1, people will take shots at you all night long. I don't want to cultivate that kind of predictable image. This is small stakes still, where you'll get people betting out with all sorts of hands.

Raising is probably the best play. Merely calling is not a bad play. Folding is bad, not just because you might have the best hand (unlikely) or best draw (possible), but because you're screaming to the rest of the field: I AM WEAK-TIGHT!

[Stealthy]

Sry my post did not take enough notice of the back-door draws which strenghen the hand enough to make this raise correct against most opponents.

I was trying to make the point of peeling with just overs is very often incorrect even as a pre-flop raisor with AK.

Easy raise here.

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This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

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You need to recount your outs.

Easy raise.

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If you see this draw as anything more than a 4 outer you are being too optimistic.

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You can't possibly be serious about folding here.

First, you do have more than four outs. It's not many, but you can make a straight or the nut flush with what you have. There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here.

Second, if you're folding two overcards on the flop every time you're bet into getting 11-1, people will take shots at you all night long. I don't want to cultivate that kind of predictable image. This is small stakes still, where you'll get people betting out with all sorts of hands.

Raising is probably the best play. Merely calling is not a bad play. Folding is bad, not just because you might have the best hand (unlikely) or best draw (possible), but because you're screaming to the rest of the field: I AM WEAK-TIGHT!

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You are misanalyzing the situation here. The hero indeed only has 4 pure outs here, 3 pure outs for his overs, and 1 pure out for his backdoor flush. There is a reason why I am ignoring the backdoor straight out, since it would be runner runner gutshot, this should be counted as .5 pure outs, however given the heros poor relative postion in this hand(meaning if the hero does turn a gutshot draw, it could very easily get raised behind him on the turn) the backdoor straight should be discounted to 0 pure outs.

I'll move on to your next statement. "There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here" In multiway pots, there are actually many times when you will drawing dead with AK. All it takes is for someone to have A4, and another guy to have KT, and poof, the hero is drawing dead, or someone to have two pair or a set.

Also, generally speaking there are many times you should call with just overcards getting 11-1, but NOT IN THIS SITUATION. There are 3 people to act after the hero, the hero's relative position in the hand is horrible, the odds of a raising coming behind the hero are too significant to ignore. This factor lowers the hero's true odds to the point where the hero should fold. If you think the hero is getting 11-1 in this hand you are being naive.

Raising is the worst play here becuz all the hero has is a weak draw with horrible relative position, this is not a time to put more money in the pot. Calling is -EV becuz of all the reasons ive stated, but I will admit that if the hero always made these -EV calls he wont be losing much, but -EV is still -EV. Folding is the best play.

About "screaming weak tight" I dont think the hero should care about what others think of him, his job is to make the best decisions possible, and folding is the best decision.

To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.

[einbert]

This is one of the very few situations where I would raise in a multiway pot with an unimproved AK.

[daveymck]

I am surprised there is so much discussion on this seems a pretty standard raise to me, we are in an ideal position to protect our hand, if we can push out anyone with a pair behind or a baby flush draw whatever then we have improved our chances of winning the pot which is a decent size.

Yes sometimes we are behind to a set or whatever but then we act according ly on later streets as information comes to us , at this point there is no reason or info to make us fold and we want to make it as difficult as possible for those behind us so calling along is not good play.

If we were last to act and facing two or had everyone limp along then we can make more of a judgement call or fold, but here we can potentially use our bad position in our favour by getting the early raise in.

[PokerBob]

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Okay. Raise.

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I really admire the way you play and everything you add to topics that you post in and am intrigued as to why raising this flop is better than waiting till the turn to put in a raise against this aggro opponent?


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Get rid of the other dudes in the pot, who likely are not wrong to call one bet on the flop and may indeed have to fold better hands to the raise (bottom pair, etc.)

[SNOWBALL138]

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You are misanalyzing the situation here. The hero indeed only has 4 pure outs here, 3 pure outs for his overs, and 1 pure out for his backdoor flush. There is a reason why I am ignoring the backdoor straight out, since it would be runner runner gutshot, this should be counted as .5 pure outs, however given the heros poor relative postion in this hand(meaning if the hero does turn a gutshot draw, it could very easily get raised behind him on the turn) the backdoor straight should be discounted to 0 pure outs.

I'll move on to your next statement. "There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here" In multiway pots, there are actually many times when you will drawing dead with AK. All it takes is for someone to have A4, and another guy to have KT, and poof, the hero is drawing dead, or someone to have two pair or a set.

Also, generally speaking there are many times you should call with just overcards getting 11-1, but NOT IN THIS SITUATION. There are 3 people to act after the hero, the hero's relative position in the hand is horrible, the odds of a raising coming behind the hero are too significant to ignore. This factor lowers the hero's true odds to the point where the hero should fold. If you think the hero is getting 11-1 in this hand you are being naive.

Raising is the worst play here becuz all the hero has is a weak draw with horrible relative position, this is not a time to put more money in the pot. Calling is -EV becuz of all the reasons ive stated, but I will admit that if the hero always made these -EV calls he wont be losing much, but -EV is still -EV. Folding is the best play.

About "screaming weak tight" I dont think the hero should care about what others think of him, his job is to make the best decisions possible, and folding is the best decision.

To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.

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I think you make a lot of good points. I wish someone would address them instead of just responding "clear raise and it isn't even close. do you see why? nyuck nyuck"

But I think you're ignoring the very very real possibility that I have the flop bettor beaten. What would you say if I was about 55 percent sure than I had the flop bettor beaten? Then I think you have to promote raising from "the worst of three options" to a pretty good choice.

[SoSo]

Bob Ciaffone would be pleased, although i would have peeled the flop getting 11:1.

[crunchy1]

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To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.

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I think that you're overvaluing your stance on this factor. Hero's relative position is actually very good on the flop.

Put yourself in the other players position (the ones to act after Villian on the flop). These players limped PF - likely with speculative hands - and Hero raised from the blinds. Now the SB leads out the flop. I think this put's Hero in a very good position.

Like SNOW said - there's a decent chance that A-high is good HU against the LAGgy SB. Raising in this spot really puts some pressure on the remaining players left to act. Not only are they facing Hero's second raise - but they also must fear a re-reraise from the SB.

I think there's a pretty good chance that they all fold here. I also think that there's a least one hand in those three that is folding a hand ahead of Hero on the flop (or at least a hand that actually had outs to continue).

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To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.

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I think that you're overvaluing your stance on this factor. Hero's relative position is actually very good on the flop.

Put yourself in the other players position (the ones to act after Villian on the flop). These players limped PF - likely with speculative hands - and Hero raised from the blinds. Now the SB leads out the flop. I think this put's Hero in a very good position.

Like SNOW said - there's a decent chance that A-high is good HU against the LAGgy SB. Raising in this spot really puts some pressure on the remaining players left to act. Not only are they facing Hero's second raise - but they also must fear a re-reraise from the SB.

I think there's a pretty good chance that they all fold here. I also think that there's a least one hand in those three that is folding a hand ahead of Hero on the flop (or at least a hand that actually had outs to continue).

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I think you and Snow are being very optimistic, but I do think you are right as far as I am overvaluing my stance on this one. I think I have written too much in this thread already, and its all over one small bet. I may be wrong in my analysis but for now I am convinced that folding is the best move here, then calling, and then raising. I am not trying to be argumentative, I think I have made it clear what my stance is. Its time to move one and agree to disagree. This was a good thread.