You might hate the way I played this hand

[Henke]

Preflop: I often raise weak limpers with holdings such as QJo in shorthanded games. There is really only one hand I fear the limper might have, KJ. He would probably have raised AJ, AQ and perhaps KQ. OTOH I might be dominating him if he has QT, Q9, Q8, Q7, JT, J9, J8, J7. The callingstation will surely call the pf-raise with any hand but perhaps 32o, which makes it a slight value bet. I wouldn't mind BB folding, and if he calls (which he probably will given the pot size) that's not too bad either, since his hand will often be worse than mine.

With one limper at a full table, this raise would probably be a bad idea, and if the limper played well it would probably be better to call too.

On the flop, no one has shown any strenght. The board is quite uncoordinated, but unfortunately with a flushdraw. Given random hand distribution, my hand is probably only best around 12% of the time, which kinda sux. But, my thinking here is that I would try to get the pot heads up with the calling station. This play is of course not as strong as if he would be to my right instead of my left, but since I might have as much as nine outs (probably around 6 though) I won't loose that much by betting here, to try to get BB and MP out. I think there's a decent chance BB might throw away a hand with an A, 4 or 2, and perhaps even a weak K. MP might throw away a couple of hands that beat mine too.. Also, if BB and MP holds trash hands like T7 they would be correct to call if they knew what i had, but calling would be very tough.

Turn:
The original plan from the flop was to take a free card if I didn't improve. If MP would have folded on the flop, I would have given up the aggression now, and try to check it down UI. However, when I picked up the OESD my thinking was that I won't loose that much if MP has a hand (like KJ) since I still have 8 outs to beat him, but he might just have called one on the flop with lots of hands he might now throw away. This is probably the place where I'm most likely to be wrong, but I only have to improve my chances of winning by 2/13 to make this bet correct. Thats about 15%, which translates to making him fold an A if he has one. Also, I estimated the probability to be checkraised to approximately 0%.

On the river I'm valuebetting every time here for two reasons. One is that there are many worse hands he'll call with (any 2,4,T,A) and the chance of him raising me is very low (probably only A high flush).

<edit>
I made some calculations, assuming that CS won't call a river bet (which is what happened) and assuming that MP indeed has a K and won't fold, I'm loosing about 1/3 bet by betting the turn compared to calling the turn. that means that I only have to improve my chances of winning by 5%, or about once in 20 hands. Is it still wrong?
</edit>

[Henke]

The bet is not a valuebet, but a shot at pushing MP out of the pot. Also, maybe I should have made this more clear in the original post, the callingstation had previously called a bet on every round including the river with A high. However, he called with far more hands up to the river... But as I saw it, with only the callingstation in the hand, I should be able to value bet QQ, JJ and any str8 on the river, and check the rest through. That would give me implied odds if I hit Q, J or str8, and I would still probably win around 50% on the river UI by taking the free showdown.

[Duerig]

Is this a standard pf raise?

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
The bet is not a valuebet, but a shot at pushing MP out of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
the callingstation had previously called a bet on every round including the river with A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? The proection concept is misapplied if you don't have the best hand -- "protecting" queen high when you're pretty sure that someone else (1) has at least ace high and (2) is willing to show it down the majority of the time is bad.

In other words, it doesn't help you if you force MP out but the calling station calls, since you'll only win if you hit one of your outs. Unless you think you're buying some Q and J outs (which on this board I highly doubt), this bet is just donating chips.

[ QUOTE ]
I would still probably win around 50% on the river UI by taking the free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this were true then your turn bet would be better. But according to your read, the calling station has shown down at least ace-high in his calldowns. What makes you so sure that 50% of the time he's going to call down with jack-high?

[Henke]

If you ask like everyone else in this thread, they probably say no, but if you ask me I say yes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Why? Because:
<ul type="square">[*]It's 5-handed [*] The limper is a predictable (crappy) player[*] The SB is an extremely crappy calling station[*] The BB is kinda weak tight post flop[*] I can at most anticipate 3 opponents[*] I have position[/list]
As I see it there's only one reason not to raise, and that is that the pot gets big, which isn't too bad for some flops with this hand.

[Henke]

The proection concept is misapplied if you don't have the best hand

I agree, but I don't try to protect my hand. I try to push MP out, there's a difference. Let's say MP has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He called the flop with a BDFD and an overcard. When still facing aggression on the turn, he has to fold (if he's not a callingstation). As I said in my analysis/thought process post, I only have to improve my chances of winning by about 5% to make betting OK here. This only applies since I'm pretty sure the calling station will call up to the river with almost any hand...

In other words, it doesn't help you if you force MP out but the calling station calls, since you'll only win if you hit one of your outs

Hmm, this is probably why we disagree. I haven't been clear enough describing the callingstation. He calls with almost anything until proven beaten. Say 72o on a flop of K85. By the time he gets to the river he'll probably need A high to call. This means that there are many of his hands my Q high will beat (any hand without an A and that hasn't paired with the board).

But according to your read, the calling station has shown down at least ace-high in his calldowns.

When he called the river bets, yes. However, I see no problem in him having Qx, xy[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 35, 56, 57... I wouldn't be too suprised to check behind and be shown a J7o nether. But of course, there are many hands which he might have that I loose to, but against many of those (Tx, 2x, 4x) I'm at least getting implied odds if I hit my Q or J (with MP in the pot I wouldn't be able to bet those).

[Vote4Pedro]

very standard

[michaliv]

I would have just limped in PF. I don;t like raising against calling stations with such weak holdings. I would have probably checked the flop also knowing that the calling station was going to call here (and someone else may have hit something). When you hit your draw on the turn I would have checked to try to hit my straight on the river. Since your bet took one person out on the turn and the calling station will call down with anything I think you have to bet this river. From how you described him I don't think he is tricky player and if he would have hit his flush he probably would have just bet.