Snakes on a Plane

bobbyi · #1 11-02-2005, 04:03 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG (30/24/1.8) raises, Button (unknown) calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Button 3-bets, [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

New001 · #2 11-02-2005, 04:05 AM

I think I fold. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

sthief09 · #3 11-02-2005, 04:27 AM

you know I respect you a lot, and you easily fall into the top 10 people whose hand posts I'm most likely to read because I know they'll be good. so you know I'm not taking a jab at you or anything. but I think you can learn most from hands like this by just analyzing it yourself. it's one of those hands that everyone talks about where you "do your thinking away from the table" since there's no way you can do that much math at the table. you want your instincts to be sharp.

so while I think it's a good hand to post because it's a tough spot, there's not much opinion involved. it's mostly hand reading. I think you and everyone else would learn most by starting people in a certain direction, like "what range of hands do you put them on" or something.

this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

if you want my opinion, I think it's a fold. if UTG has a set, you're in bad shape, and if the button or UTG has a straight you're also in bad shape. I'd imagine one of the two scenarios is going to be the case almost every time so you probably have 2 or 4 outs. when you're ahead, you probably only have 2/3 of the deck anyway. and the pot wasn't too big to start with.

please tell me if I'm out of line with my above comments. I'm just really big on the away from the table calcs because they give you a great feel for how close some situations are, and it's a lot more insightful then reading through peoples' opinions of why it's a call or why it's a fold.

jason_t · #4 11-02-2005, 04:36 AM

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this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

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Great post Josh.. Perhaps you could elaborate on what you do away from the table in front of Excel, using this hand as an example?

sthief09 · #5 11-02-2005, 04:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post Josh.. Perhaps you could elaborate on what you do away from the table in front of Excel, using this hand as an example?

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after I fail my midterm tomorrow, but I'm sure you know what I mean here. make a range of hands, figure out your outs vs each, the number of combos, make some judgment weights for the combos, then do an EV calc. here I'd guess that it's significantly -EV to call, which is really nice to know in a situation that you think is close. the nice thing about excel is you can tweak the numbers. you can also see the factors that most affect the EV. one thing I learned from doing these is just how much only having 2 outs affects you when you have a pocket pair and aren't sure what do to.

jason_t · #6 11-02-2005, 04:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post Josh.. Perhaps you could elaborate on what you do away from the table in front of Excel, using this hand as an example?

[/ QUOTE ]

after I fail my midterm tomorrow

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Me too. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] (Not a midterm, but yeah I'm supposed to know some [censored] by tomorrow that I don't.)

sthief09 · #7 11-02-2005, 04:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

this isn't just for you. I think it's something that'll help everyone. you'd be amazed how much time I spend sitting in front of excel figuring out hands like this to sharpen my instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post Josh.. Perhaps you could elaborate on what you do away from the table in front of Excel, using this hand as an example?

[/ QUOTE ]

after I fail my midterm tomorrow

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] (Not a midterm, but yeah I'm supposed to know some [censored] by tomorrow that I don't.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I added some to that

jason_t · #8 11-02-2005, 04:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I added some to that

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure you know what I mean here. make a range of hands, figure out your outs vs each, the number of combos, make some judgment weights for the combos, then do an EV calc. here I'd guess that it's significantly -EV to call, which is really nice to know in a situation that you think is close. the nice thing about excel is you can tweak the numbers. you can also see the factors that most affect the EV. one thing I learned from doing these is just how much only having 2 outs affects you when you have a pocket pair and aren't sure what do to.

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I figured that's what it was, but I don't know how to use Excel so I just do it by hand.

baronzeus · #9 11-02-2005, 04:47 AM

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it's mostly hand reading. I think you and everyone else would learn most by starting people in a certain direction, like "what range of hands do you put them on" or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

hand reading is ridiculously under-rated in this forum. rather than just looking at your hand and looking at the board, look at your opponents' hands. i honestly think that the best mid-high players are where they are because of their hand reading ability.

i could give a new player a general guideline for mechanics like when to value bet, when to raise for a free card, when not to showdown, etc, but it would be -EV in the long term. if that player instead learned WHY he should do things like value bet, showdown raise, bet ragged flops, etc, and spends time working on hand reading, he would much better apply those concepts and would be a superior player to the machine that i programmed.

this is part of the reason that it's hard to find postable hands for me. almost every time i play a hand, i play it a certain way because i know how my opponents play, and theres no way you can know that without being at a table. a lot of random plays look very -EV in a vacuum but in the long term they are not as bad as they look.

sthief09 · #10 11-02-2005, 04:54 AM

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I don't know how to use Excel

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wow. I might have to give you some nerdy excel lessons. people that don't use it have no idea the breadth of tools excel offers and how easy it all is. I seriously use excel for everything