Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Other Poker > Other Poker Games

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-21-2005, 12:28 AM
GuyOnTilt GuyOnTilt is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Southern California
Posts: 2,405
Default 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

Hey guys,

Yes, I'm a fish. My lack of experience in this game is getting me very lost sometimes. Game is decent. Two really bad players, two good ones, and one mediocre. And me, who may fit into any of the above categories.

Two folds to good CO who raises. Mediocre Button calls, bad SB calls. I call in the BB with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 4 players for 8 SB's.

SB takes 2, I take 1, CO takes 1, Button takes 1. I draw J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]

Checked to CO who bets, we all call.

SB takes 1, I takes 1, CO takes 1, Button takes 1. I draw T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]

SB checks. I bet, CO calls, Button raises, SB folds. I call, CO calls.

I take 1.

I was totally lost on what the line should be on 3rd. Like, no clue. My instinct was to take the line I took, but I definitely was no sure at all and now, after having a chance to think about it, I'm pretty sure it was misplayed. I need to talk it through though, so somebody help me.

GoT
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-21-2005, 02:27 AM
PLOlover PLOlover is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 365
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

Play some pot limit or I guess it's half pot limit, and you'll get a deeper appreciation of the play.

Being limit, I would hesitate to break any 4 card hand against an aggressive player, whereas in pot limit it's like an auto fold really.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-21-2005, 03:03 AM
John Bedtelyon John Bedtelyon is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 47
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

I don't liek the break either, but I'm definitely in the bad player category. I'm off Badugi for a little while since I was dealt a pat 6 and lost to a 4! I was very new at the game and only had a few hundred to play around with on Doyles room.

I guess I'll live on to play another day soon, it's hard to do anything else though when the LHE games on Party are so so easy.

JMB
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-21-2005, 05:30 AM
CurryLover CurryLover is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: England
Posts: 54
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

Although I've played a lot of padooki, I find it hard to comment on your line. These type of questions are impossible to answer just from a hand history. It's like asking what do you do at Hold'em when you flop TPTK on a raggedy board and get check raised. Sometimes you're calling, sometimes you're passing, sometimes you're re-raising. It's the same here. You can only make this decision based on what you know of the opponent. Does his raise necessarily mean that he can beat your T padooki? I imagine some of the opponents in the new online limit games are over-playing any 4 card padooki, and might be raising you here with Ks, Qs or Js. But since I've not played it online at all, I don't know what the 'typical' opponent is like.

Since it is limit, I'd be inclined to call, stand pat, check call on the end, and keep my fingers crossed. But that's my general philosophy in limit poker and is the reason I can't play limit hold'em well (we just don't play limit poker of any type in the UK).

For what it's worth, in the games I play, my 'default response' to a pot-sized re-raise in this situation would be to pass (translated into your situation I guess that means call but break - since this is a huge pot in a limit game and you probably have pot odds to attempt to outdraw your opponent). But then, I'm not sure whether there is ever a time when I would resort to a 'default response'. The games I play in are so read and situation dependant that I can honestly say I might pass, call or re-raise in this scenario depending on how all the variables have added up.

Don't forget you are first to draw. If you stand pat, you put pressure on your opponent to break a slightly better padooki. If you combine this with a prior re-raise you would be making a great play if it worked. But, once again, this is all dependant on your read and knowledge of the opponent.

Obviously this hand is a small example of the importance of position in padooki. I don't know how you are finding positional play in your games. In the PL games I play in padooki may well be the game in which position is of most importance. Even more so than PL Omaha, O8B or Hold'em. I never feel so vulnerable when out of position in any other game. I imagine this is because of the PL structure which means bluffing and semi-bluffing are so much more important. In fact, bluffing is a bigger part of the game in padooki than in any of the other games I play. Sometimes it almost feels like your position lets you win the pot no matter what cards you and your opponent catch. How are you finding this aspect of padooki in your games?

I'm in the process of doing some analysis on the mathematical stuff behind this game. When it is finished I will put it on this forum. I'm not the best at maths though and I'm struggling with some of my research and analysis, so it might take a while and will doubtless be inaccurate. You definitely need to know things like exactly what are your chances of outdrawing your opponent in this situation if you decide to break your T padooki. I'm just trusting your line on this and assuming that you do have the pot odds. Like I said, I don't play limit so these situations (where you have huge pot odds to draw at longshots) just don't occur in my games. The whole idea of deciding you're beaten but calling and then breaking here seems totally alien to me, but might well be correct in such a large pot at limit padooki. That's another reason why I can't play limit well I guess.

I'm going to have to register and start playing padooki online. I might very well be a total fish playing the different rules and with limit betting.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-21-2005, 08:54 AM
Chris Daddy Cool Chris Daddy Cool is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 401
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

i don't know how common it is in padooki as opposed to triple draw, but how often do you think players would raise you here with a worse padooki to try to get you to break yours?

the key thing to consider though is that the co is stuck between you two and can potentially outdraw you no matter what you do and i don't think you can be quite sure that you're drawing better than him.

i think my default here would be to stand pat and pray.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-21-2005, 12:03 PM
fnord_too fnord_too is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Norfolk, VA
Posts: 672
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

I need to do a lot of math before I can comment reasonably here. If you have started down that path, I would love to see the numbers you have crunched.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-21-2005, 06:48 PM
GuyOnTilt GuyOnTilt is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Southern California
Posts: 2,405
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

[ QUOTE ]

Although I've played a lot of padooki, I find it hard to comment on your line. These type of questions are impossible to answer just from a hand history. It's like asking what do you do at Hold'em when you flop TPTK on a raggedy board and get check raised. Sometimes you're calling, sometimes you're passing, sometimes you're re-raising. It's the same here. You can only make this decision based on what you know of the opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]
While this is totally true if I had outlined a general scenario and asked for opinions, it doesn't hold very much if I spell out every action and general opponent description. At least not any more than if I had done the same thing with an online LHE hand. I understand that a lot of decisions that come up in hands that are close are going to be read-dependant, but often times - and especially online - you don't have the luxury of super specific reads and are forced to make a decision based on less than stellar information. It sucks, but it's a reality in the online world.

I think the aspect of this game that's making it hard for me in certain spots is the overlap of +EV situations with regard to standing or breaking. I'm not positive this is the best way to go about estimating outs, but the way I've been doing it is based on the median of what I perceive my opponent's full range to be. Let's say in this situation he can raise here with anywhere from a 5-J. I'm discounting him having a 4 'cause I think he would've 3bet PF with a 3card hand that good, but then again he could've improved his draw on 2nd so let's put that back in there. So 4-J. I don't see him always raising a J or T here, so let's discount those very slightly. Let's also discount his 4's and 5's very slightly since there's a higher chance he would've 3bet PD with them. So we'll call it a wash. His median hand is now between a 7 and 8. How many outs do I have against that hand if I break? Depends on how often my 8632 is good vs his 8 and my 7632 vs his 7's. If I have to put a concrete number on it (which is the whole point in making reads and estimating outs), I'd go with slightly less than half the time versus his 8's considering his CC PD - we'll go with .4 - and .1 versus his 7's. That gives me 3.5 outs. I'm getting an immediate 10:1 with a virtual lock on 11:1 with no chance of being reraised. That alone gives me just enough room to draw given I have close to +1 BB implied on avg, which I think I do. But I have to consider the fact that I need to discount a couple fractions of my outs since it is very likely there are 1-2 Aces gone. If we set the average at 1.4 (reasonable I think) and each Ace has a .25 chance of being the suit I need, that's another .35 outs gone, which is enough to push drawing in -EV territory. And that's without discounting further for the times I hit and CO hits better.

All of this is just me thinking out loud here and this is the first time I've even attempted to run any real numbers on this specific scenario, but after doing a little estimation in my head the other day after the hand I had a feeling it was going to end up being -EV. So I don't think I can profitably draw here, but what if the pot were 3 BB bigger and I could? Then breaking would be profitable. So should I? I still don't know.

Let's take the same hand-range of J-4. Now in this specific hand I do not think I should call a river bet, even if I choose to call and stand. With me calling and standing and the other player drawing live, I do not think the Button (who I described as good) can possible continue betting with a worse hand than mine. Ever. Or at least not with a large enough frequency to give it any mathematical significance. So, I'm getting 14:1 to "call down" (we're still speaking hypothetically in our pot of +3 BB, although it would still be profitable in the actual hand as well). Will my hand be better than his 1 in 15? From the hand-range we're giving him and from a Bayesian perspective, it will. Even if we discount for the times CO hits (if we're giving him 7 outs against us) we can still profitably "call down" here. So both "calling down" and breaking are both profitable. And it's so close and so complex to even come to that conclusion in the first place that I'm having trouble making a decision when placed in these spots in the middle of a hand. I guess it all probably comes down to doing the math work off the table to get a better feel for how things turn out in difference situations and pot sizes and against different hand ranges. That's basically how I approached LHE and just did a ton of weighted EV calcs off the tables and have gotten quite good at making what turn out to accurate estimations in hands or if someone asks me about a hand etc. So I guess that's what it's going to come down to here for me as well. Eh. Okay.

As for the actual hand, I think calling and standing was my best play here. As I stated paranthetically, I can make a profit by calling, standing, and folding to a river bet, and I already decided breaking was -EV. I definitely disagree with calling a river bet though and I think if that was my plan it might push calling and standing on 3rd to -EV, thus making folding a better option than that. So with the little math work I've done, I'd rank my options as:

1) Calling, standing, and folding to a river bet.
2) Folding.
3) Calling and breaking.
4) Calling, standing, and calling a river bet.

3 and 4 would depend on which is more -EV, calling and calling again or calling and breaking, though my gut feel tells me call/call'ing is the worse of the two choices.

Anyway, this is all very rough and was done as I was writing, so let me know if I made an errors anywhere. I probably did somewhere, so yeah. This is good being able to talk all this out though.

GoT
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-21-2005, 06:58 PM
timprov timprov is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 88
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

[ QUOTE ]
So 4-J. ... His median hand is now between a 7 and 8.

[/ QUOTE ]

No no no. Non-linear here. (There's only one 4, but dozens of Js.) I'm not immediately sure what the median is here, but it's at least a 9.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-21-2005, 07:06 PM
GuyOnTilt GuyOnTilt is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Southern California
Posts: 2,405
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So 4-J. ... His median hand is now between a 7 and 8.

[/ QUOTE ]

No no no. Non-linear here. (There's only one 4, but dozens of Js.) I'm not immediately sure what the median is here, but it's at least a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice! Thank you. I'm sure I made many other errors in thinking and math in there since I just kind of typed nonstop for 10 minutes. So catch my other ones. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

K, so permutations (adjusted for known cards):

4: 144
5: 576
6: 1728
7: 6912
8: 27,648
9: 110,592
T: 331,776
J: 1,327,104

Okay, now toward the end of doing that I realized it was dumb 'cause we know he has to have 3 decent low card to start with given his CC PD, but not so good that he 3bet. So we need to put him on a range of starting hands and adjust for possible improvements on 2nd to really do this right. I'm supposed to meet some people for lunch right now, so I'll do it when I get back. Late.

GoT
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-21-2005, 08:08 PM
PLOlover PLOlover is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 365
Default Re: 20/40 Padooki Hand : I\'m Lost

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> I definitely disagree with calling a river bet though and </pre><hr />

Of course a lot depends on whether he stands pat or not. As you can see, raising in position with a good three card hand costs just a fraction of a bet, because most times opponents won't have a monster paduki, they'll have something like a T [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:30 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.