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#1
12-05-2005, 08:18 PM
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Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
[ QUOTE ]
The only reason that I wouldn't raise here would be that if I show that I'm not raising top two on the river in this spot, I'd be able to bluff him off any river I feel like unless he has the nuts. That just doesn't seem worth the extra $1K you could make here. [/ QUOTE ] its a bit of a tangent to the hand but i thought your comment touched on a somewhat interesting point. i think not raising here indicates that the hero may be unwilling to make marginal value raises. this is not at all the same thing as indicating hero will not bluff raise the river. in some circumstances this can make it easier to call a river raise because if you know its either the nuts or a bluff its pretty hard to make the nuts so that leaves a decent chance of a bluff. all the marginal value raises are not included in the range of potential raising hands. 
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#4
12-05-2005, 04:59 PM
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Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
Depending on how tricky the opponent is, I think I might just call. The thing is that he can be almost positive you are not checking 56 on the turn. As a result, the only hand he really fears is AA, and even then if he comes over the top you really aren't beating anything but a bluff and might lay it down.
If he is not capable of coming over the top with any two, I'd raise it maybe $650-800 more. Enough so that it could appear to him you are bluff-raising.
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#6
12-05-2005, 05:10 PM
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Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
The reason I don't love the turn check in hindsight is because given his play til now, diamonds look like a reasonable possiblity and if they don't hit, i need to get more value here.
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#7
12-05-2005, 05:40 PM
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Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
well if he's tough, he can't really be calling a pot sized turn bet with diamonds. I think if he is likely to have diamonds then the turn check is even better, and you can get a lot of money in on the river if it hits.
I guess if he'll call off 500 on the turn with diamonds you might as well bet, but it would really suck to get blown off your hand if he decides to checkraise.
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#8
12-05-2005, 06:16 PM
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Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
[ QUOTE ]
The reason I don't love the turn check in hindsight is because given his play til now, diamonds look like a reasonable possiblity and if they don't hit, i need to get more value here. [/ QUOTE ] I don't see any problem with checking this turn. You really, really, really do not want to get check-raised all-in here, which he could do with a turned straight, a set or a hand like 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Even if you put him on raggedy diamonds, betting the turn will be tricky business because you obviously don't want to lose him.
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#9
12-05-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
That's why I checked, but on the flop, this is a hand I will go broke with against this guy everyday, and I think I might even be willing to go broke on the turn - meaning that if he comes over the top, i don't care because I'm calling.
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#10
12-05-2005, 06:35 PM
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Re: Value Raise this River? Commerce 10/20
going broke on the flop is fine, but on the turn he'd have to be really really agro for me to like getting it all in there. You might *have* to go broke but that doesnt mean getting it all in on the turn is better than checking.
you might have to call against this guy if he does raise the turn, but i doubt you'd be hoping he raised it. I still like the check.
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