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  #1  
Old 10-21-2005, 09:41 PM
Beck Beck is offline
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Default 5000 hands, and losing money....

No, this is not a bad beat post.

I'm involved in a discussion with a friend of mine. He have had some bad experiences playing at a specific site, and he believes the players have another playing style than he is used to at Party. A playing style he can't beat.

The thing is, he has played like 5000 hands, based on 10 sessions, and 9 of those sessions has been losing sessions.

Personally I believe that 5000 hands/10 sessions is nothing and even with absolutely perfect play could all be due to variance. He claims however, that if you are not showing a profit after 5000 hands, then you are doing something wrong.

And at Party and Pokerroom he is winning like 90% of his sessions (which I would put down to an EXTREMELY good run).

PLease share your thoughts on this with me.
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  #2  
Old 10-21-2005, 09:55 PM
POKhER POKhER is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: .50/1 At Stars - LONDON, UK.
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Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

Sessions don't mean much, I won 43% of mine. I table hop.

5000hands, How much is he down by? Try "graphing" his thing, this may show his "Ups and downs" a bit better.

Sweat him, See if he fundermentally misplays things... Check his VPIP/PFR?

Make him read books, and post here.

POKhER.
p.s. im currently -$260 at 1/2 (80 at pokershare i lost, and 185 at party). Over about 1k hands... Yep... Sucks. Just keep at it.
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  #3  
Old 10-21-2005, 10:20 PM
SoftcoreRevolt SoftcoreRevolt is offline
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Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

Your friend is an idiot if he thinks you can't have a losing run of 5,000 hands due to variance. It is less common, but it happens.
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  #4  
Old 10-22-2005, 06:17 AM
Beck Beck is offline
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Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

The thing is, he is a good player. He has read the books, and know what he is doing.
He shows a winrate of about 3BB/100 at party and Pokerrrom over a much larger sample (don't remember how many though).
However, when playing at Absolute, he claims that the players are playing in a different manner, and the fact that he has lost money over 5000 hands (again, don't know how much) prooves, that he cannot beat Absolute 2/4.

I don't see any difference in the play, I see just as many hardcore-no-odds chasers at Absolute as Party has got.
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  #5  
Old 10-22-2005, 06:45 AM
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Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he is a good player. He has read the books, and know what he is doing.
He shows a winrate of about 3BB/100 at party and Pokerrrom over a much larger sample (don't remember how many though).
However, when playing at Absolute, he claims that the players are playing in a different manner, and the fact that he has lost money over 5000 hands (again, don't know how much) prooves, that he cannot beat Absolute 2/4.

I don't see any difference in the play, I see just as many hardcore-no-odds chasers at Absolute as Party has got.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nonetheless, he has a lack of understanding of some basic math and variance principles. He is wrong and you can easily go on a bad run for way more than 5K hands.
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  #6  
Old 10-22-2005, 07:04 AM
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Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

OMG, 2/4 at AP is so easy to beat, there is something wrong with your friend alright.
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  #7  
Old 10-22-2005, 12:19 PM
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Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he is a good player. He has read the books, and know what he is doing.
He shows a winrate of about 3BB/100 at party and Pokerrrom over a much larger sample (don't remember how many though).
However, when playing at Absolute, he claims that the players are playing in a different manner, and the fact that he has lost money over 5000 hands (again, don't know how much) prooves, that he cannot beat Absolute 2/4.

I don't see any difference in the play, I see just as many hardcore-no-odds chasers at Absolute as Party has got.

[/ QUOTE ]

I beat party 1/2 for 30k hands, went to absolute and got beat at their 1/2 and 2/4 tables for about 2 thousand hands before I began to recover. The players DO play different, but they are very beatable. He needs to iodentify what's causing him to lose, and then learn how to play against those types of players.
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  #8  
Old 10-22-2005, 12:39 PM
bicyclekick bicyclekick is offline
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Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

I just got out of a 50k hand breakeven streak.

It happens. At the same time, if you haven't proven yourself to be a strong winning player mb it's not as much of a 'downswing' as it is 'running normal'.
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  #9  
Old 10-22-2005, 01:39 PM
EStreet20 EStreet20 is offline
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Location: Sayreville, NJ
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Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

[ QUOTE ]
However, when playing at Absolute, he claims that the players are playing in a different manner, and the fact that he has lost money over 5000 hands (again, don't know how much) prooves, that he cannot beat Absolute 2/4.

I don't see any difference in the play, I see just as many hardcore-no-odds chasers at Absolute as Party has got.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say that if this is all true and what he says is an honest assessment of why he's losing then his problem is clearly table selection. I'll save the long lecture on that because it's one of my biggest shortcomings as well. However a few ways to help might be asking what time of day he's playing, maybe he's no tplaying during peak hours when more games are juicy. Also ask him if he observes tables before he posts his blinds to get a feel for how tight/loose the table is. Finally, if he seems to be playing the average games at that table and still losing, naybe he needs to drop a limit to examine his decision making in a lower risk game.

Good luck,
Matt
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  #10  
Old 10-22-2005, 01:48 PM
Beck Beck is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Denmark
Posts: 188
Default Re: 5000 hands, and losing money....

[ QUOTE ]

I'd say that if this is all true and what he says is an honest assessment of why he's losing then his problem is clearly table selection. I'll save the long lecture on that because it's one of my biggest shortcomings as well. However a few ways to help might be asking what time of day he's playing, maybe he's no tplaying during peak hours when more games are juicy. Also ask him if he observes tables before he posts his blinds to get a feel for how tight/loose the table is. Finally, if he seems to be playing the average games at that table and still losing, naybe he needs to drop a limit to examine his decision making in a lower risk game.

Good luck,
Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, actually think we are closin gin. Problem is, we're from Europe, which means that peak hours equals midnight to 6am for us, making it more difficult. And when off-peak hours, you have't got much of a table selection at Absolute.
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