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#1
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Re: River AQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So that's 2 for call, 1 for raise. But the 1 for raise is pretty kind of persuasive. So I'm not saying it's 66% call. I'm saying it's about 55-60% for a call, meaning I'd call but it's very close. [/ QUOTE ] Thats wrong because you don't weight these three reasons equally. [/ QUOTE ] Um, no it's right because I don't weight them equally. If I did, it would be 66% towards a call. Since I'm weighing #2 a bit more heavily, I'm saying that I would lean 55-60% towards a call. |
#2
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Re: River AQ
Call because both draws that he could have donked on the turn just got there and if not I guess hes just retarded and is bluffing so by raising you will either get 3 bet by a better hand or the donk will call. I think you are losing this showdown btw
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#3
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Re: River AQ
Generally, you want to have the best hand 66 percent of the time to raise. However, you can do with a little less here because many players are too passive to 3 bet their sets on a flush/straight river.
So, I definitely raise. I think you have the best hand less than 66 percent of the time, but still often enough to be profitable because you are not always going to get 3 bet by a set. |
#4
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Re: River AQ
I used to raise in this spot and I always had the worst hand. If you call he will show AT and if you raise it will be KJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. So I'm calling here for sure as the only logical hand that we can beat is AT. You are not going to win this hand > 66% of the time when you raise IMO. Hell I don't think you will win this pot 50% of the time or even 33% of the time when called or reraised.
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#5
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Re: River AQ
I'd say raise because you will get shown QT very often in this spot (or a worse two pair). I think with a set you'd get 3-bet on the turn. I also wouldn't expect a turn donk from KJ, unless its naked KJo.
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#6
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Re: River AQ
two pair would have 3-bet you on the turn i think. looks like a pair draw that got there. id call.
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#7
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Re: River AQ
if you can fold to a 3-bet, raise.
fwiw i wouldn't be able to fold to a 3-bet. |
#8
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Re: River AQ
Very much agree with this. Also, I limp preflop now.
-DeathDonkey |
#9
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Re: River AQ
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I limp preflop now. [/ QUOTE ] Elaborate a bit please. I can see doing this here with AJ but we've got an open-limper and a few others who don't really seem to have much. Seems like a raise. |
#10
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Re: River AQ
Entity will come by with his pokerstove sims and show why but he convinced me awhile back. This is 10/20 so the chance they have absolute crap goes down a bit, and they will play a bit better postflop. By bloating the pot we make it really easy for them to play correctly later and we don't have that big of an equity edge with big offsuit cards in a multiway pot. We already have the button so no need to buy it.
-DeathDonkey |
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