30/60 SH river bluff

DeathDonkey · #1 12-02-2005, 02:22 PM

I'm playing at two shorthanded 30 games and this same multitabling TAG is at both of them as well. We are pretty much staying out of each other's way at this point as everyone else is horrible.

Then this...I open in the CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], with TAG guy on my left on the button. His stats are like 22/15 mostly 6 handed and he has played me very honestly so far. The blinds were a 40/3 total passive postflop guy and a 50/20 LAG fwiw, this open raise ok right?

TAG 3 bets me and the blinds fold and I call.

Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I check, he bets, and I decide to peel.

Turn is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I check, he bets, I think about checkraising, but just call.

River is K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and I immediately donk bet.

-DeathDonkey

spydog · #2 12-02-2005, 02:26 PM

I think AT/AJ/AQ will 3-bet you here preflop, even if he is slightly tight. I can't see those hands calling this river donk because it looks so much like a King that doesn't want the river checked through. I'm not sure if 88/TT-QQ will fold to this, but they might. Overall, I'd say it's probably pretty neutral to slightly +EV.

Spicymoose · #3 12-02-2005, 02:34 PM

On the flop you are getting 7:1, so need at least 6 outs. You do have the backdoor nut flush, but you could easily be dominated, or have only 3 outs (plus your backdoor flush). I think this is an easy flop fold. Next, on the turn, you are getting 5:1, and since you now have your open ended, you can continue. I think this is a great place for a semi-bluff though, so I might check raise here. This might occasionally take him off an overpair, but also a ton of the time it takes him off his better aces, which is awesome.

I don't like the river. I doubt we are getting any hands to fold, as all Aces now split. People are usually curious by this donk, so will call if they stand a shot at winning or splitting. I am not sure if check/calling is better than check/folding, but it is pretty easy to figure out with math. I would do it, but I just spent about 10 minutes doing math showing why I liked the bluff, until I realized that all As split.

DeathDonkey · #4 12-02-2005, 02:48 PM

Sorry you wasted some time doing that work because all aces certainly do not split on a 6679K board. Thanks for the math on the flop/turn, I am guilty of peeling flops too much I'm sure, but I justify it by saying "they will check behind on the turn alot so I will get to see two cards" but this spot was maybe pushing it too far.

-DeathDonkey

Alobar · #5 12-02-2005, 03:05 PM

to me the river bet looks odd. I would find it hard to believe you were chasing down with a K that wouldnt have c/r the flop. Same goes for a smaller PP. Maybe im just being uber retarded cuz I know what your hand is, but I think id be suspicious enough here to call with a big ace, and definately never fold a PP.

Spicymoose · #6 12-02-2005, 03:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry you wasted some time doing that work because all aces certainly do not split on a 6679K board. Thanks for the math on the flop/turn, I am guilty of peeling flops too much I'm sure, but I justify it by saying "they will check behind on the turn alot so I will get to see two cards" but this spot was maybe pushing it too far.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh. I am an idiot. For some reason I had in my mind that we paired our ace, and the king counterfeited all kickers... I know it doesn't make much sense, cuz then we wouldn't be bluffing...

Quick math:

27 combos of AQ, AJ, ATs. Sometimes they check the turn, so call it 20.

I think there were around 50 combos of hands that are definetly not folding.

We need this to work 1 in 7. If the aces fold 50% of the time, then we get this to work 1 in 6, and we should bet the river. If they fold even a bit less, not a good bluff.

#7 12-02-2005, 03:57 PM

Ditch the flop. You're behind, like, 97% of this player's normal 3 betting range on the river, so we're looking at 6:1 for him to fold a good ace (when he has it). So unless you've got some further information about him to support this play it's probably poor.

krishanleong · #8 12-02-2005, 04:05 PM

whole hand is perfect.

Krishan

TStoneMBD · #9 12-02-2005, 04:51 PM

definitely openraise this preflop. not a fan of the river donk. if you want to see a showdown id rather checkraise the turn and checkfold the river. id rather just checkfold the river though. not any logical hands youre ahead of and i think alot of players will look you up with a strong ace.

Spicymoose · #10 12-02-2005, 08:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
whole hand is perfect.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

This helps me not at all. Please explain yourself.