A post for Tommy Angelo.

[JTG51]

Preflop I capped it, but I was absolutely certain that my opponent had an overpair, he only 3-bets with overpairs preflop and premium ones at that.

Why do you keep saying he has an overpair preflop? What does that mean?

Now I know that the majority is going to jump on me here and say not to fold, but how could UTG possibly be betting here to steal this, its not likely of him, he's not that creative. He doesn't think like (WE) the two plus two community thinks.

Does that mean that we in the two plus two community think this is a good spot to try to steal? I hope not.

I call for the .0005% chance that he's bluffing...

Why does he have to be sealing or have a monster? Couldn't he be value betting a pair of 9's or 7's, or a pocket pair? Afterall, the flop was checked around. He probably thinks you all have AK, that's all that you've represented so far. If you were in his position wouldn't you think there was a decent chance that something like A7 was the best hand on the river?

[Mikey]

"Why do you keep saying he has an overpair preflop? What does that mean?"

Before I answer this question I want you to think about the reason why you are asking me this? What purpose does it serve that you ask me this question that you know the answer to.

For that matter I'll go ahead and answer your question which despite my use for the proper terminology I'll reclarify for you so you can sleep better tonight. What I meant to say was a "premium pair in the hole" meaning, a pair of Aces, Kings, Queens, or Jacks.


"Does that mean that we in the two plus two community think this is a good spot to try to steal? I hope not."

I would believe so, especially against someone like me who is capable of folding for 1 bet on the river, and now have the chance of making the pot heads up with the other potential losers, who have showed 0 agression through the entire post flop play.


"Why does he have to be sealing or have a monster? Couldn't he be value betting a pair of 9's or 7's, or a pocket pair? Afterall, the flop was checked around. He probably thinks you all have AK, that's all that you've represented so far. If you were in his position wouldn't you think there was a decent chance that something like A7 was the best hand on the river?"

Hey you're right he could be value betting, but I've watched this player play, if you read my initial post it says I'm playing 10-20 with the same faces, therefore I have a line on all their play, and UTG isn't a very good value bettor.

Now please do me a favor, and see if you could find any other errors I made in my previous posts and bring them to my attention this way I can clarify for you what exactly it is that I mean to say.

[JTG51]

I would believe so, especially against someone like me who is capable of folding for 1 bet on the river, and now have the chance of making the pot heads up with the other potential losers, who have showed 0 agression through the entire post flop play.

I'd be shocked if any regular poster here would bluff at the river after the pot was 3-bet and capped preflop, then bet and called in two places on the turn.

Hey you're right he could be value betting, but I've watched this player play, if you read my initial post it says I'm playing 10-20 with the same faces, therefore I have a line on all their play, and UTG isn't a very good value bettor.

I think you underestimate what players will bet, even the ones you think you have a good read on. That's a recurring pattern in a lot of your posts.

It's way too expensive to be practical, but I think you'd really gain a lot by calling everyone down every time you played a hand for a session, just to see the garbage that they'll bet and the crazy bluffs they'll occasionally make.

Now please do me a favor, and see if you could find any other errors I made in my previous posts and bring them to my attention this way I can clarify for you what exactly it is that I mean to say.

I'll do us both a favor and not bother. All I'll say is that you should drop the persecution complex. I'm not spending half an hour at 4 AM replying to your thread for my own benefit.

[elysium]

hi mikey
good post. since you called a player whose limp in means nothing, even from UTG, and had no way of knowing what the CO would do, and that furthermore the CO is also a bad player, unless there is something in either of these two players' profiles suggesting that he wouldn't bet or raise without a stronger hand than two pair over-pair, and that a slowplay with a reasonable number of hands that you beat would be possible in two spots; wrong, but possible; you have no issue here mikey. you're not cold-calling two, and these guys are unreliable. that means that your calls have value. the one exception is if you think that the MP would have been weak-tight enough to play his AA like that. it looks like a lower pocket pair to me mikey.

you won't win many of these, but you will win often enough to easily call any bet, even when your call doesn't close things. and closing with a call isn't an issue either. the flop weakness shown, albeit not badly played, just the way it worked out, may have incited the type action you have here, and calling is pretty rudimentary there.

you'ven't an issue here mikey.

[elysium]

hi mikey
going for the check-raise on the flop wasn't that bad a play in this particular game unless you've been betting out with nothing a lot. it's not something that you should often do, however, it's not that bad. the difference amounts to pennies because often, you will trap and keep the back-doors coming at you, along with the weaker hands. it wasn't illogical if you had everything you needed. did you? well, you certainly had the right type game to go for a check-raise.

by the way mikey, i'm laughing here a little because i can't imagine how you think this post is a post for tommy of all people. tommy is an executive. this is a bag boy's hand. the whole entire specter of this game is anti-tommithian. you got checked around? that's happened to tommy once in his life. at airport security. the man will never fly again.

[Tommy Angelo]

The votes are in and tallied, and the contraction of the week award goes to ... elysium, for "you'ven't."

[Luke]

Mikey,

I don't think giving the checkraise a shot on the flop was a mistake for a couple of reasons:

1. You're not going to get many better boards to risk giving a free card on - you're basically only afraid of an ace because even a 9 only has 2 outs and may bet anyway.

2. The player on your left is very likely to bet and you will have an opportunity to trap everyone for multiple bets when they are likely very far behind you.

Now, the reasons to not attempt a checkraise are:

1. Since you've shown so much preflop aggression, there's a chance you've scared everyone off from betting the flop and getting it checked through will risk a free card and make the hand more difficult to play from then on.

2. The pot is huge and you're happy to knock out any and everybody.

Given those reasons, I think the tiebreaker is that since you play with these guys regularly, you'd like to vary your game here and there. So if you want to put in a checkraise once in a while on the flop, this is a pretty good spot to do it given all the variables.

What are you afraid of anyway on a 944r flop, someone hitting a runner runner straight? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

As for the river, maybe there is only a .005% that the UTG guy is bluffing. But there's a 5% chance he thinks his A9, TT, 76, 97 is good or he misread his hand and thinks his T5 straight is good.

I see it happen online all the time but it happens live too where I suddenly get bet into on the river, I scratch my head, call with my TPTK or overpair and then get shown some mediocre hand like middle pair. It's not a bluff and they don't see it that way, it's just that bad players aren't good at determining the relative strength of their hand and reading your hand. That's a big part of what makes them bad.

Luke

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
The way I prevent from making the initial mistake of checking the flop is to not even think of it as an option. If I raise TWICE before the flop with KK, and no ace flops, and it's my option on the flop to check or bet, it is impossible for me to check.

As to the rest of the hand, I have no idea what you should have done or when or why. You were in mysterious unchartered waters. The biggest reason I would always bet in that spot on the flop is because the information stream must remain intact to be later useful. Once I make any bet that is exactly the same as what someone would do if they did not have KK, all is lost. It's like guessing all over from scratch, as to what they have, compared to simply betting out on the flop, because now I have to think about what they now now think I have, having checked, when before, all I had to do was assume that they thought I probably had a big pair, and proceed reasonably and predictably to attain maximum profit and/or savings.

The situations yet to unfold, on the flop and turn, are always too diverse in number to anticipate any of them individually, so I anticipate all of them collectively, from a position of maximum information and leverage. Bet the flop.


Tommy



[/ QUOTE ]

This advice is so powerful, that I'm sure it was lost on many of the people who've read it.

In fact, if we each printed it out and read it out loud before every session we played, it wouldn't be too often.

When you consider the high percentage of holdem profits that come from big pairs, I'd go so far as to say this is the single most critical piece of post flop thinking I've ever read on this forum.

Thanks Tommy,

-Scott

[Tommy Angelo]

Hi Scott,

"When you consider the high percentage of holdem profits that come from big pairs ..."

Could I add one little thing here which is that for a winning B&M limit-hold'em player, almost none of his earn comes from what he does with KK before the flop, or from what he does with KK on the flop when no ace flops, and that's because it's almost never right to call or fold before the flop with KK, and almost no one does, and it's almost never right to fold on the flop with KK when no ace comes, and almost no one does. So KK before the flop and usually after the flop is a huge tie.


Tommy

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
This advice is so powerful, that I'm sure it was lost on many of the people who've read it.

In fact, if we each printed it out and read it out loud before every session we played, it wouldn't be too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I need a tissue.