party 30/60 hand I'm not happy with

[shemp]

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So what happened was a 20:1 shot or worse that Paluka just happened to witness? O rly. That seems quite a bit long to me. Not 1 in 10 but fewer than 1 in 20 unknown Party 30 players is this goofy. You might be right. I'm skeptical.

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I witnessed a 1 outer once. Does that mean it wasn't a 1 outer? A 1 in 20 shot isn't all that rare.

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Thanks, but you might address the question. Do you think fewer than 1 in 20 unknown 30 players makes this play? I'm really interested in your and other's opinions.

[AceHigh]

I don't have a problem with the way you played it until the river, I think you should call the river if you call the turn. Unless the utg player raises.

[Paluka]

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So what happened was a 20:1 shot or worse that Paluka just happened to witness? O rly. That seems quite a bit long to me. Not 1 in 10 but fewer than 1 in 20 unknown Party 30 players is this goofy. You might be right. I'm skeptical.

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I witnessed a 1 outer once. Does that mean it wasn't a 1 outer? A 1 in 20 shot isn't all that rare.

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Thanks, but you might address the question. Do you think fewer than 1 in 20 unknown 30 players makes this play? I'm really interested in your and other's opinions.

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Honesty, I thought it was very close whether to fold or call. I was getting something like 10 to 1. I would say I win the pot there at least 5% of the time, but I'd be really surprised if I won it more than 1 time in 6. When the hand went down I thought to myself "I think I'm folding, but this could be wrong." But asking me is pointless- I obviously thought it was close that is why I posted the hand.
It is possible that if you are going to call the turn in this spot, you should just always call the river.

[lil feller]

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Wouldn't raising the turn for a free showdown accomplish more in this spot?

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I haven't read the results yet, but in reading the OP that was my thought. The donk screams "I picked up a draw), and the call screams "I'm weak as hell and don't have an Ace". I raise the turn 100% of the time here without hesitation.

lf

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It is possible that if you are going to call the turn in this spot, you should just always call the river.

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Yeah, if you call the turn I think you want to call the river. That said, the more I think about this hand the more I like folding the turn.

[shemp]

Thank you. I think what we need here is more hand reading and pot odd calculation rather than being guided by the principles:

1) Overcalling with middle pair is for donks.
2) It's a really big donk who blusters turn and river into a protected pot without a hand.

You can't put utg on a hand, and the exercise of putting BB on a hand is difficult. If he has a monster (big ace, two pair, or set or toppair + nut draw, and where was the nutdraw on the flop), isn't he more likely to try for c/r? It starts looking like a hand that will call or air real quick.

[flawless_victory]

i raise preflop and i raise the turn as well planning to most likely check down the river.
if BB is passive, or sane i would just fold the turn, but i dont know what youre supposed to be putting him on here and his erratic play makes me think he must be an idiot. it seems like hes picked up a club draw here alot, and if thats the case, you have every1 beat.

[Duke]

Maybe DERB used to run into tough spots like this too.

~D

[Paluka]

I don't really like raising preflop in this spot. I think people get themselves into trouble trying to raise preflop in multiway pots with hands that have basically zero showdown value. With the preflop raise and a near mandatory continuation bet it ends up costing you 3 times as much to "see the flop".

[TheWorstPlayer]

Why is a continuation bet near mandatory? Multi-way against people who won't fold, it doesn't seem like it is. But you should still be able to extract enough playing QJ on the BN against bad players to make the raise profitable, no? What do you think your equity in the pot is, taking into account position and playing ability?