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#1
11-19-2005, 01:25 AM
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Return on Investment Simulations
I have been doing some sims today and trying to follow the work of a friend of mine. I believe that he is onto something here, and wanted to know some thoughts or ideas on this matter.
Doing sims pre-flop, just calling looking for a 10% return on investment in position over 2 million hands. This is the situation and the interesting point;let's say an AJ offsuit UTG gives a 10% return on investment, now with this specific hand it is better to raise with, so assume a raise here. Now, K-9 suited on cutoff gives same return on investment.. Here it is...I may play the AJ, but not the K9 and they both are the same value of hand. Does anyone understand what I am getting at here, or is this over the top. I am wondering if anyone has done any work like this??? I appreciate your thoughts and comments, and thanks in advance for respectable comments. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] 
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#2
11-19-2005, 02:41 AM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
I think you're confused. Or I am. Anyways, this whole board is essentially about finding all situations that are greater than 0% ROI and taking them. No one is throwing away K9s who believes that you get all your money back + 10%. It's not like we're looking only for the most profitable plays and throwing away the ones that are only kind of profitable.
good luck. eric
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#3
11-19-2005, 04:10 AM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
Eric,
It's not about getting all your money back 10% of the time, it is about making a 10% return on the money you have to put in. That however is not my point... People will play a hand up front that they won't play late, and the two hands return the same amount....I am trying to get at the most repetitive play that is the most profitable. I want to know the reasons why people will play one hand vs. another when they return the same amount.
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#4
11-19-2005, 04:32 AM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
[ QUOTE ]
People will play a hand up front that they won't play late, and the two hands return the same amount....I am trying to get at the most repetitive play that is the most profitable. I want to know the reasons why people will play one hand vs. another when they return the same amount. [/ QUOTE ] they dont return the same amount. position makes up for a significant part of the difference. Barron
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#5
11-19-2005, 04:53 AM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
I think elindauer is correct. The situation you're describing is something that doesn't exist, or at least is ridiculous. For the most part, there are no hands that I'm going to play in early position that I'm not playing in late position (barring specific situations, like a raised pot, etc). Working under the assumption that AJo UTG has the same ROI as K9s in the CO, I'm going to play them both in those positions. It's a bit ridiculous to restrict yourself to only one hand choice or the other. If AA UTG gives you the same ROI as KK on the button, are you going to fold the AA because you played KK two hands ago?
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#6
11-19-2005, 09:58 PM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
The later position is what makes them the same ROI. An AJ in the same late position makes more, but AJ up front is the same as K9s late.
What I am trying to get at is more consistant play based on ROI. I would play a hand that has the same ROI in a spot vs. another.
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#7
11-20-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
You still need to add a LOT more detail to your description or question, because it looks like you just agreed with the people who were trying to show you where you were wrong. If I understand your def'n of ROI properly, the "consistent" decision tree you're trying to build should simply be a list of hands by position (different list for each position) that are positive ROI. Under the assumptions you'd have to make for such a sim, that list produces the most profitable playlist.
Did you try to ask "which is better-- AJo UTG or K9s cutoff?" If so, the replies were saying "who cares.. both are good, play both." Are you only trying to build a pre-flop list? Give more explanation of what you are trying to say or ask, and you'll get answers you like better. -Curtis EDIT: What does "consistant" mean in your post? Consistant what?
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#8
11-21-2005, 06:11 AM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
[ QUOTE ]
Here it is...I may play the AJ, but not the K9 and they both are the same value of hand. [/ QUOTE ] I think everyone is playing K9s on the CO when it is folded to them or a loose player limps. [ QUOTE ] Does anyone understand what I am getting at here, or is this over the top. [/ QUOTE ] No and no.
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#9
11-21-2005, 07:20 AM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
If you want to be taken seriously, add some squiggly brackets to your idea. Then you are in. Here's a few to get you started. {{{ }}} {{{ }}}}. I added some commas free of charge. , , , , , , ,. Good luck.
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#10
11-21-2005, 10:34 AM
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Re: Return on Investment Simulations
[ QUOTE ]
If you want to be taken seriously, add some squiggly brackets to your idea. Then you are in. Here's a few to get you started. {{{ }}} {{{ }}}}. I added some commas free of charge. , , , , , , ,. Good luck. [/ QUOTE ] I gotta say, I'm all for the various new ideas floating around here. but this was [censored] funny.
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