The "Big Game" Bankrolls and EV

[ace_in_the_hole]

I was wondering what kind of bankroll would be sufficient to play in this game especially knowing it is against other pros. Also who in your opinion will be a long term winner and long term loser in this game? Discuss

[West]

Two of Daniel Negreanu's recent blogs talk about the big game. On one day this was the lineup:

Seat 1: Chip Reese
Seat 2: Phil Ivey
Seat 3 Johnny Chan
Seat 4: Negreanu
Seat 5: Gus Hansen
Seat 6: Lee Salem
Seat 7: Doyle Brunson
Seat 8: Chau Giang

and the next day this was it:

Seat One: Negreanu
Seat Two: Johnny Chan
Seat Three: Chau Giang
Seat Four: Phil Ivey
Seat Five: Lee Salem
Seat Six: Chip Reese (followed by Gus Hansen)
Seat Seven: Lyle Berman
Seat Eight: Doyle Brunson

He describes several tough beats he took en route to losing $440,000 over two days, though he says he was nowhere near the biggest loser over the time he played. He mentions that players can win or lose as much as a half a million in an hour in the game. They were playing a mix of games with limit stakes of $4000/$8000 and no limit/pot limit games capped at $100,000 per player investment in any one pot.

I don't know how Lee Salem or Lyle Berman compare, but it would seem on the surface to me that risking that much money against the likes of the rest of that lineup is the definition of a high risk investment.

[TStoneMBD]

i hear pros talking about losing a million dollars in a day at the big game happens quite frequently, but i dont buy it. at 4000/8000, you would have to lose 100BBs in order to break the 800k mark. how often do you see people dropping 100BBs in a limit game? it does happen, but not as often as advertised from what ive heard.

regardless, according to conventional wisdom, 2.4m is the minimum for a 4/8k game. however, i would be very surprised if the regulars in that game are sporting any less than 3m. it just seems too reckless for these players to be risking their fortunes on a potential downswing. although, there are bound to be players who move up, willing to risk everything on the big game. players like brunson, reese, greenstein, and giang seem like the type to be catious with their rolls. ivey seems to be a big more reckless, and so does negreanu. i wouldnt be surprised if gus was playing a little bit too high for himself as well, but since hes had such recent success, his bankroll should be plentiful for that game.

[Paluka]

These guys do not require a backup banrkoll, because it is so easy for them to find backers if they bust.

[jojobinks]

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i hear pros talking about losing a million dollars in a day at the big game happens quite frequently, but i dont buy it.

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they play some pot and no limit with a 100k max loss per hand. you could lose 1,000,000 in 20 minutes of that, right?

[jeffraider]

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i hear pros talking about losing a million dollars in a day at the big game happens quite frequently, but i dont buy it. at 4000/8000, you would have to lose 100BBs in order to break the 800k mark. how often do you see people dropping 100BBs in a limit game? it does happen, but not as often as advertised from what ive heard.

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Well, for one thing, Barry Greenstein said that it was unusual for a player to be down a million and then up a million in a session (re: Gus Hansen).

For another thing, Daniel Negreanu said that results in the big game are generally determined by how you do in capped NL/PL pots. Losing five or six $100,000 capped pots plus running on the bad side and dropping 50BB (which I'm sure can happen with a game this tricky) adds up to a million dollar loser night.

[pancakes]

yes, although million dollar swings in the game are somewhat out of the ordinary, they are not that rare. The fact that those guys play hyper-aggressive poker can make some of those 4k/8k pots bigger than the capped ones, and they length that they play their sessions if you get cold cards for one nigth it could be very easy to be stuck a million.
--all this dosen't even include the prop bets that these guys make where it isn't that rare for someone to be winning in poker but stuck a million in props

[crookedhat99]

OK, there's no way Ivey is playing to high for himself because he's got the biggest roll of all of them. And also, cold cards aren't going to affect these guys at all. In that game it's not about the cards.

[TStoneMBD]

thats not what i was referring to crooked. firstly, i highly doubt that ivey has the biggest bankroll of them all, but im certain his bankroll is now more than suffice for this limit at this time. what i was referring to is his track record. he used to play in the 100-200 game, and would take shots at the 400-800 when hitting a good streak, then move back down and try again. hes put his bankroll on the line quite a few times in his career. that is what i was referring to.

[reubenf]

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And also, cold cards aren't going to affect these guys at all. In that game it's not about the cards.

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So you're saying there's a huge difference in skill between the players in this game?