can i fold this river?

EvanJC · #1 10-12-2005, 12:36 PM

no strong read, but opponent seems straight-forward. go ahead and comment on any street.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (6.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

aba20 · #2 10-12-2005, 12:46 PM

I wouldn't without a read. He will have rivered two pair here 1 in 10 times to make this profitable.

krishanleong · #3 10-12-2005, 12:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't EVER. He will have rivered two pair here 1 in 10 times to make this profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Krishan

jba · #4 10-12-2005, 01:24 PM

I think I am paraphrasing Entity when I say that you will very very rarely be making a mistake if you never fold a set heads up.

EvanJC · #5 10-12-2005, 01:49 PM

thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Roy6 · #6 10-12-2005, 04:18 PM

I agree with those who are comitted to showdown.
That being sad, isn't a check/call line better here?
What hand is that he would call a bet with but not bet it if he was checked to given his previous actions?
Maybe A9, 88, and AT. That's not that much.
He'll bet any K one pair hand for us, and he could also bet a missed draw.

jba · #7 10-12-2005, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with those who are comitted to showdown.
That being sad, isn't a check/call line better here?
What hand is that he would call a bet with but not bet it if he was checked to given his previous actions?
Maybe A9, 88, and AT. That's not that much.
He'll bet any K one pair hand for us, and he could also bet a missed draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there are tons of one pair hands and many two pair hands that will check behind here. There are four cards to a straight (missing just a Q which we could definitely have) and a possible flush. I don't think a K is betting here.

this is textbook Clarkmeister theorem IMO