river decision with 2nd nut flush

helpmeout · #1 10-23-2005, 03:03 AM

ring game (I cant be bothered posting in midhigh)

I post in CO with KJs and raise 2 weak limpers.

I make a non nut flush by the turn with Qd on the board 2 limpers in the hand still.

River comes 4th diamond and loose passive 66/1/.46 bets into me, I only have 100 hands on him but his aggression is even across all streets.

Is this an easy fold here considering I have the K and J and the Q is on the board? He'd have to either be betting Td for value which is very unlikely or on a total bluff which is again unlikely(considering another player is in the hand).

Opinions, thanks

blackize · #2 10-23-2005, 03:14 AM

How big is the pot?

Danenania · #3 10-23-2005, 03:20 AM

I'd call. A .46 aggression factor over 100 hands says very little as to whether a player is capable of bluffing or not. It also doesn't seem that far fetched to me that he could be betting a lower diamond. Again, his agg factor after 100 hands just isn't reliable enough to be very sure. Sounds like you will be getting at least 9 to 1. I think you'll be good that often.

Jeff W · #4 10-23-2005, 05:21 AM

I would call. Even a seemingly passive player will get out of line on this board often enough to justify a call getting 9.25:1 or whatever huge odds you're getting.

Nietzsche · #5 10-23-2005, 07:00 AM

Getting 9:1 I don't see how you can fold.

He has no particular reason to believe you even have a diamond so this might be a random diamond betting for value or even a bluff, despite his passive nature (100 hands isn't much either).

I would need to have played him for days to make a fold like this.

surfdoc · #6 10-23-2005, 07:34 AM

I have seen a bunch of plays that are completely paradoxical with people's stats. I think you gotta call.