AQo flops 2-pair

#1 11-14-2005, 09:18 AM

Opponent in this hand seems solid as far as I can tell, although I haven't played more than 50 hands with him. What's my plan on the turn?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

UTG ($200)
MP ($43.35)
Hero ($260.20)
SB ($270.23)
BB ($231.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $2. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, 1 fold, BB calls $8, UTG folds.

Flop: ($23) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero raises to $47, BB calls $35.

Turn: ($117) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $100, BB calls $174.85 (All-In) Hero...?

Dumle

djoyce003 · #2 11-14-2005, 09:42 AM

i can't see folding here for another $74...could easily be up against AT or QT. If he's got KJ or a set, then you are just SOL.

#3 11-14-2005, 09:49 AM

My thoughts were along the same lines. I had a hard time seeing him call my PFR with AT or QT, though (as well as KJ for that matter). Perhaps I'm giving this semi-unknown too much credit?

Dumle

djoyce003 · #4 11-14-2005, 09:51 AM

calling with KJ is about as bad as calling a raise with AT or QT...he's almost certainly got one of those hands unless it's TT. They are probably sooted.

RubbleRobble · #5 11-14-2005, 09:51 AM

Unless I'm missing something here its 75 to win 370, aka 5:1. You lose to 1 AA, 1 QQ, 3 TT's, and all 16 KJs. about 90% of the time you have 4 outs to beat the hands you are losing to, which constitutes 8% (unless my logic/math is bad, I'm out of practice) of your overall win percentage. you DESTROY 6 QT's and 6 AT's. You said he wasn't a donk, so I'll sort of ignore 66 and A/Q/T+6 for the sake of argument. You split with the 4 other AQs, so they dont really matter. All in all, you win easily 12 times for every 21 you lose. 5:1 pot odds on whats most likely a 1.75:1 proposition should be an easy decision.

That being said, it doesnt seem like it shouldn't take an analysis like that to make a call with top two at PP 200nl. a fold here is way too weak. Then again I could easily be wrong, other thoughts?

#6 11-14-2005, 10:01 AM

I think you have to call here, But the way the villian played this I am positive you were beat. The bet, smooth call the raise on the flop, then the check raise all in on the turn. He flopped a monster. Im sure of it.

But with the size of the pot, I think the above post is right on the money.

#7 11-14-2005, 10:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Unless I'm missing something here its 75 to win 370, aka 5:1. You lose to 1 AA, 1 QQ, 3 TT's, and all 16 KJs. about 90% of the time you have 4 outs to beat the hands you are losing to, which constitutes 8% (unless my logic/math is bad, I'm out of practice) of your overall win percentage. you DESTROY 6 QT's and 6 AT's. You said he wasn't a donk, so I'll sort of ignore 66 and A/Q/T+6 for the sake of argument. You split with the 4 other AQs, so they dont really matter. All in all, you win easily 12 times for every 21 you lose. 5:1 pot odds on whats most likely a 1.75:1 proposition should be an easy decision.

That being said, it doesnt seem like it shouldn't take an analysis like that to make a call with top two at PP 200nl. a fold here is way too weak. Then again I could easily be wrong, other thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

My question is - What of the above would he call the PFR with? Several of the above hands should have generated a re-raise IMO.

#8 11-14-2005, 10:40 AM

The difference between how I thought at the table and your analysis is that I assumed this guy was solid. With that assumption I think you really need to weight all these combinations. For example, the probability that he holds AA or QQ is lesser than you assume, since he didn't reraise. The same holds for AT and QT, since he called preflop. If you take this into consideration, I think he will have TT here a vast majority of the time.

However, I had only played with him for 10 orbits or so and he may very well not be as solid as I think he is. If he isn't, then you're analysis is dead on.

Thanks!

Dumle

#9 11-14-2005, 10:42 AM

calling with KJ is about as bad as calling a raise with AT or QT...he's almost certainly got one of those hands unless it's TT. They are probably sooted.

Agreed. I probably shouldn't rely on a read that I got after only 50 hands.

Dumle

RubbleRobble · #10 11-14-2005, 10:45 AM

Good point Beachman, obviously I should have thought a bit more about it [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]. I feel safe ruling out AA and QQ, (obv) as they are def reraising those. If the player is good, I see the 3 TT's, maybe KJsuited hoping to make it big on the flop or outplay you, as well as ATs. I dont think he has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] as that is a reraise as well.

Basically, he could be good, or he could be not good. If not good, I dont really see a big problem with my original post as bad people have a tendency to make calls with KJ type hands.

If he is good, you probably eliminate all the KJs that were dragging down your win percentage before. While not exact, I'll venture a guess that you are still pretty close to even money to win here.

Even with all this nitpicking about what he could have, remember that 5:1 pot odds is REALLY hard to ignore heads up.