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#11
08-03-2005, 08:56 PM
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Re: 5/10 How bad did I screw this up?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You're 4.1:1 to hit. [/ QUOTE ] Are you assuming are ace outs are good to get this number? Based on the flush draw outs alone, I don't see how we can be winning that often because it certainly looks like the hearts we need are tied up in the other people's hands. [/ QUOTE ] Nah, I was just quoting 9 odds outs. With the Ace outs, you're about 2.83:1, with the Jacks (which are often good here), you're 2.06:1. I'd say that on the whole you're about 3:1 to hit your hand here, so the raise is breakeven or slightly +EV depending on how you look at it, but it gets cut down a lot if people fold to your c/r. Rob 
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#13
08-03-2005, 09:49 PM
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Re: 5/10 How bad did I screw this up?
On the flop there are two cards still to come.
On the turn there is only one left. On the flop you'll catch a flush on eith the turn or the river about 35% of the time. On the turn you'll catch your flush about 20% of the time. Plus on the flop there's more of a chance you're overcards are good than when someone leads out of nowhere on a 4-straight board and also likely more callers.
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#14
08-03-2005, 10:10 PM
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Re: 5/10 How bad did I screw this up?
Pretty bad. Lead the flop, let the pre-flop raiser build you a big pot for your big draw.
The turn play is something else altogether entirely. Turn raises can be very effective. But they're costly as hell when they miss and I don't think I'd ever try it against FOUR opponents. FOUR!?!?!?!?!
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#15
08-03-2005, 10:36 PM
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Re: 5/10 How bad did I screw this up?
Flop - I should have bet it
Turn - I knew it was probable that Button would bet it again, I wanted to encourage all the overcalls I could encourage, BUT when the EP bettor bets out I get to CHECKRAISE the WHOLE field!!! I was checkraising for value. (The same reason you raise suited connectors preflop after 5 limpers or whatever) Yes when 3 of the FIVE folded I was crying the whole time about all that dead money being in the pot. NOT... River - Button was a ROCK, other guy was one to call to the river and then fold when he missed 75/1/0 kinda guy. When checked to I felt my only chance at this 18BB pot was to bluff.
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#16
08-03-2005, 11:02 PM
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Re: 5/10 How bad did I screw this up?
Yeah, when I first read this I thought the c/r was a bluff. Its still a weird spot to c/r.
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