pre-flop question, stats based...

[stoxtrader]

If a 25 PFR raises in EP and there is a cold call from a vpip 60 and 35PFR, what's your best action with KJo in the CO+1 raise, call, or fold?

my thoughts to follow...

[Brom]

fold

[1800GAMBLER]

call.

[AviD]

Hey stox, I'm assuming you are keeping the stats simple to allow for discussion (i.e. no vpip given for EP, nor any postflop agg for either).

Anyway, you certainly have equity in the cold caller, the question is how loose is the EP raiser and what his raising standards are, as well as their respective aggression. This basically tells you how far you can go postflop (if you choose to play), based on the range of hands you can put them on in conjunction with the board (most of this I'm positive you are well aware of).

Getting to the hand specifically, I'm not a fan of KJo, as it is an easily dominated hand, but you have position against two very PREFLOP aggressive players.

Given that, I'd imagine you are either a coinflip with the cold caller (CC) or ahead of him/her, as he/she would likely 3-bet with hands better than your KJo. The question is, how likely are you ahead of EP, and how much value can you get out of EP and CC those times you are ahead and/or flop a hand. I don't see you pushing them off a better hand at any point if you whiff the flop and they have something like a mid or small pocket.

So this brings us back to postflop play and aggression. If EP and CC continue their aggression postflop (with or without a reasonable hand), you will be paying ALOT to get to a showdown with a mediocre hand (say flopped middle pair)...unless you can confidently fold to their aggression knowing you are behind based on their previous play/observation/notes/etc. But I don't see that being likely, so if you hit any piece, you are probably going to showdown a high majority of the time, especially if they are prone to bluffing with complete trash (in which case there is huge postflop equity those times you hit any piece of the board).

You clearly have an easy fold on the flop if you whiff and wind up facing immediate aggression, so in a way you can get in somewhat cheap to see the flop and get out when you miss (if you call rather than raise, as raising you will often continue with your aggression and not get away as quickly/easily).

So now on to the options...

RAISE: With CO and Button to act behind you and the blinds as well, you have to ask what will your raise achieve? Consider the players behind you and especially the blinds. You do not want to play KJo multiway and if the blinds are likely to call a single raise, but not call a 3-bet...then I think a raise is viable as you are very likely to be ahead of CC and probably EP as well..and you can cut the field down to 3-way action, as opposed to potentially 7 way action if the CO, Button, and blinds are loose enough to call a raise but not a 3-bet.

CALL: Well if you want to see a flop, and feel it is unlikely CO, Button, and blinds will call the initial raise, then there really isn't any reason to raise...so you can just call here. Worth adding again is EP and CCs postflop play, and if your raise vs your call will prove to be a factor in them releasing their hands on missed flops due to your preflop, followed by postflop aggression. If they are going to run you down the majority of the time, then I don't think your raise has much value here if you are confident the majority of the players behind you yet to act are going to fold.

FOLD: Probably the safest, easiest, and least variance resultant of all options, but not quite the clearest option. In the recent KQo thread, I guess I learned that there is quite a bit of equity to be had in spots like this and while KJo isn't the best of hands, it certainly has value 3-way against two over aggressive and loose PF players. (and yes, I realize the other hand was a steal attempt and 3-bet with KQo to isolate based on that information, just citing it for relativity).

So...where did we wind up? I don't think it is a clear fold, and somehow I don't like calling to allow others (especially the blinds) in for less than if I were to raise and then facing multiway action (or at least more multiway) than I'd like and if I were to raise. I feel I am probably ahead the majority of the time vs both of these players or at worst a coinflip, and can get away from the hand (easily if I call, less easily if I 3-bet) those times I miss.

So my order is probably raise, fold, then call...but with postflop play based on all things considered above.

Sorry so long, didn't intend it to be and you probably just wanted to know the order of my preferred actions! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[gonores]

Calling is out of the question, IMO. There is too good of a chance you're going to be facing two bets cold on the flop, and you're stuck with King high. On top of that, a call virtually guarantees 4-way action, with 5+ players coming in more often than not. I don't like 4-5 way pots with KJo for 2 bets.

Between raising and folding, I like folding (especially for a multi-tabler). I don't want to do the math right now, but off the top of my head, I think the number of hands that have you in bad shape outnumber the hands that have you in good shape somewhere around 2:1 (I am assuming that the raiser raises ~15-18% of his hands from EP).

[Fibo]

Fold. Dominated. It may even cost you more than 2 bets if the button or blinds have a good hand.

[fsuplayer]

i fold it. if i am playing though i raise, bc as gonores said, i dont want to be in a big 4-6 handed pot with KJo.

suited I would call here.

[Paluka]

Fold. With a hand this weak you can't really outplay them postflop because you will never know where you are at.

[BigDan9]

I think you've got to fold. In most games, I'd fold KJo in middle position even if there hasn't been a raise. Fine to call or raise with it in late position, but not against a raise and cold call. You almost certainly need to: a) get a piece of the flop; and b) not be dominated if you do. That doesn't happen enough for it to be a good value play...

[JeffO]

I'd fold and live to fight another day.