Party getting tight? Just me?

[Nate tha' Great]

All businesses are seasonal to some extent, so maybe we ought to think about some of the triggers that would induce new players to play poker, or to induce marginal players to play more poker.

Among the things that I think we'd want to consider are:

* Site-specific advertising efforts. Every time I see a Party Poker commrecial on TV, I figure that's a penny or two of +EV for me.

* General poker exposure. The WSOP coverage should help things some in a month or so. The WPT events are now occuring so regularly that I don't know that there's going to be an ongoing boost from them. If NBC or FOX or something started airing a poker show, that would be significant.

* Seasonal factors. People are going to be more inclined to play poker when it's unpleasant outside, e.g. during the winter. OTOH, people have more leisure time in general during the summer.

* Microeconomic factors. People are likely to receive large lump sums of money on or around the holidays (Christmas bonuses and gifts). There's probably some residual benefit from people receiving tax refunds, which should start soon.

It certainly seems possible to me that we're at something at a low point in the poker cycle; we're 11 months away from the last WSOP ... the weather has been unseasonably warm in many parts of the country ... OTOH, students are still in school, and the spring and fall tend to be busier parts of the year for most professionals.

It's also possible that we're nearing the inflection point of the poker "bubble"; while the number of poker players continues to grow, it is not going quite as rapidly as it might have been a month or two ago, and it is this growth that is probably the best proxy for what we'd call "fishiness". I happen to think that the first three months of this year were subject to a convalescence of shorter-term and longer-term cyclical trends that were incredibly favorable, but which are not sustainable over the longer term.

That said, the games are still very, very good, and they're going to continue to be very good for a long time. It's a great time to be a skilled poker player.

[1800GAMBLER]

I'm not, i'm saying one leads to the other.

[Webster]

LOL - That is why I'm content down here in the trenchs at 2/4. Nice easy living - no stress and still 14 grand a year playing 1 table.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
yea - tight 2/4 BUT passive - Average pots are lowering.

astroglide - not as bad as 2/4 Pokerstars or 2/4 UB OR 1/2 games at Pokertropulas.

How is the aggression up there - are they scared money? I dabbeled in 5/10 and frankly the games were like 2/4 but way way passive.

[/ QUOTE ]
aggression up there is VERY HIGH

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL - That is why I'm content down here in the trenchs at 2/4. Nice easy living - no stress and still 14 grand a year playing 1 table.

[/ QUOTE ]

play 8 tables and make 14x8 = 112K, now that's better living.

[squiffy]

That's been my experience. My play has always been enough to make a tiny tiny profit over the long run. But recently have been having much more trouble at low limits to 2/4. Very strange.

[charlie_t_jr]

Well, I think there's a difference. A "tight" table could be soft. I don't think tight = tough...that's all I'm saying.

[lefty rosen]

Because you know what the other players are calling on raises. Also you know that since they are tight they won't chase. You just have to be the most aggressive on the table and you will win nearly every time on these tables......

[Webster]

I watched 3 5/10 tables last not on Party and frankly - I was not impressed with the talent LOL.

Aggressive but not very bright at all 3 tables. I could nevertell if they were bluffing or just playing bad hands.

Seems to me that most of the 5/10 players were 1/2 players with big banks!

[Styles]

I'm gonna say Party $2/$4 has gotten a tad tighter preflop on the whole, but, looser postflop and a bit more aggressive. My swings are huge right now and I've lost many more MonsterPots where I thought MHIG to really awful hands, but, mostly to Big Pairs that chased and got really lucky.

I've reread Feeney twice in the last 2 weeks. It's hard to be happy when you lose a 25BB pot on the river, but ...

I had two hands yesterday where I called a raise multiway with Ace-Big suited and both times turned or flopped my flush with no pairs on board, runner runner Kings for 4 of a kind and runner runner 4s to lose to Jacks full of Fours. Both pots capped the flop and turn with at least 3 opponents.

You have to be happy when someone caps the flop with pocket Kings with a 3 flush showing don't you?

(Party won't send me HH's or I could post them)