Tournament Theory Question Part 2

[David Sklansky]

Again you think you are 60% to double your initial stack without playing big pots. How good do your chances have to be, if head up, on the first hand you play, someone moves in for HALF your stack (no one is behind you).

Approximately:

A. 51%

B. 55%

C. 60%

D. 65%

E. 70%

[slavic]

This is early on and the bet is a non crippling amount.

A

[MaxPower]

I think it is D or E. I'll go with E. If you lose half your stack your chance of getting to 20,000 will be much less than 60%. If you win the hand your chances of getting to 20K will increase slightly, but not as much as they will drop if you lose.

[storm_madden]

C. Time is less of a consideration.

I'd fold 55 vs. A7o but call with AJo vs KTo.

[TimTimSalabim]

If it's a small pot, you'd only need just over 50% to make the call, and if it's your whole stack, as was the case in the first problem, it's just under 60% needed, so I'll make an educated guess and say you need about halfway in between to make the call, so I'll take answer "B".

[slamdunkpro]

I'll say D - I'd want better odds than my 60% for just grinding it out.

[Copernicus]

Since its only half of your chips and its the first hand, there will be later rounds of betting on this hand, so I would think the answer is between A and B if you dont know his hand precisely, just the % you are favored. (If it were C D or E you would reraise the rest of the stack, since you now have some folding equity that you didnt have in the first question, where *less* than 60% was sufficient). If a lot of the value in the winning % isnt likely to develop until the turn or river, and there could be pressure to fold on the flop than I think you have to tighten up to answer B and make your best judgement on the flop. If its a hand thats ahead from the start then I would go with A because you have some folding equity on the flop.

If he has flashed his cards as in the first question, knowing his exact hand would enable a precise calculation on the flop which is enough of an edge to make A right pre-flop IMO.

[Robk]

Expected chip count if you fold = 20000*.6 = 12000

Expected chip count if you call = 15000*p + 5000*(1-p) = 10000p + 5000 = 12000
=>10000p = 7000 => p = .7

I don't recall ever getting one of these right, but I'm going to keep trying. There's a first time for everything.

[daryn]

E

[slavic]

Copernicus-

The question as I read it, seems to say that the Villan is all in for half the value of your stack. This just happens to be the first hand you have played not the first hand of the tourney.

In this case you have your folding equity in the bag and I still like A.