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| View Poll Results: witchcraft | |||
| i think so |
   
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16 | 9.88% |
| not likely |
  
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136 | 83.95% |
| not sure |
  
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10 | 6.17% |
| Voters: 162. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#31
06-07-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
[ QUOTE ]
Since your starting stack was over 200 BBs, you should fold. If you (or villain) had only 100 BBs, I might consider a call, and at, say, 75 BBs it would be an easy call. However, a losing set should only lose around 100-120 BBs. [/ QUOTE ] Although I understand what you're trying to say here, I have to argue that it makes no difference how many bets he hypothetically wins or loses on the hand. Assuming there's $0 in the pot (it's pretty close), he's getting 1 to 1 on his call regardless, so as long as he wins more than half the time the call is profitable. Doesn't matter whether he's risking 50BB or 1,000BB in my opinion, except where bankroll is concerned. 
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#32
06-07-2005, 06:08 PM
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Results
Thanks for the thoughts guys, as is almost always the case the discussion was more interessting than the results.
I couldn't imagine him doing this with the nuts so after thinking a while i tought his most likely hand was a big draw and called. He showed 77 and party wasn't rigged enough to let me suck out. IMHO villian played this hand terribly - only one hand worse than his could possibly call this - 33 (which I unfortunatly had). I'm still not sure what the correct play in this situation is against an unknown, but I'm inclined to think it's close between a call and a fold - as someone pointed out in this thread it's usually a way behind/slightly ahead situation most of the time. This decision would have been so much easier had I had 77 or the board would have been w/o the flush draw possible.
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#33
06-07-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?
I say call. I admit it's a lot to call off in an unraised pot, but does he really have a bigger set? If he had a set of 7s or 9s would he make a huge overbet on this board? I don't think there's any way. This isn't a bet that wants to be called. I don't even think the straight/flush draw is possible. I think it's a draw or a stone bluff. I would be shocked if he had a made hand at this point.
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#34
06-07-2005, 07:01 PM
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how do you play the villian\'s hand?
A lot of people seem to think it's very likely that the villian has a set. I believe most thinking playeres would try to sell a set. If this guy is a donkey, then he will have a wider range of hands. It seems like either way it's not very likely he has a set.
How would you guys play the villian's hand? Assuming you checked, would this be the way to play it?
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#35
06-08-2005, 01:14 AM
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Re: Results
He is thinking at a higher level than you, he knows that pushing looks like a draw, so he does it to get 33 to call
just playin [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I lead flop for 2/3 pot, either smoothcall or do the delayed fake-think push if he raises, check/raise turn
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#36
06-08-2005, 05:27 AM
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Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
He showed 77 and party wasn't rigged enough to let me suck out. IMHO villian played this hand terribly - only one hand worse than his could possibly call this - 33 (which I unfortunatly had). [/ QUOTE ] Am I not a badass hand reader? Seriously though, my condolences on losing your stack. Set over set sucks.
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#38
06-08-2005, 07:56 AM
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Re: how do you play the villian\'s hand?
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I like the push. Huge over bets like this only have to work occasionally to be profitable. [/ QUOTE ] This is very not true. You have to compare the profitability of the line versus the profitability of all other lines, not versus nothing.
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#39
06-08-2005, 07:58 AM
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Re: how do you play the villian\'s hand?
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This is very not true. You have to compare the profitability of the line versus the profitability of all other lines, not versus nothing. [/ QUOTE ] Well said. That is all. -dB
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#40
06-08-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: how do you play the villian\'s hand?
True. Nevertheless, the pot is like 16$. If by pushing he can pick up a call for 200$ from top pair/good kicker, and overpair, or a lower set, then I like the push. Virtually everyone here put Villain on a draw when they saw this line. Is it really so unreasonable to think that less sophisticated players would go so far as to call off their whole stack with mediocre hands because they put Villain on a draw? Plus, there are a number of cards that could potentially kill Villain's action on fourth street (any heart, 6, 8, 10, etc). Overbetting takes care of this problem.
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