Passive player wakes up -what to do with TPTK?

[Aaron W.]

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Maybe I am just a LAG, but it seems dangerous to me to put that much faith into a read after only seeing a player not 3 bet KK once.

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In the context of this hand, it's actually not so dangerous. The reason that it's fine to drop it here is because the draws are so weak relative to the supposed strength of the 3-bet. And even if you hit your draws, you're still in the dark about where you stand. The risk factor is just too large here to make a clear decision.

So if you give up an edge here, it's probably not a very big one, but if you push it, you may well be pushing a huge dog.

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I guess I am just hesitant to label anyone that passive until I see a bit more of a pattern to it.

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This is what Hero said: "I had him at 35/1 after 68 hands." The reason that the read has credibility is not just the fact that he didn't 3-bet KK just once, but that it fits the overall read of him being very loose passive preflop. 68 preflop plays is quite a few for getting a feel how someone plays preflop.

[zram21]

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This is what Hero said: "I had him at 35/1 after 68 hands." The reason that the read has credibility is not just the fact that he didn't 3-bet KK just once, but that it fits the overall read of him being very loose passive preflop. 68 preflop plays is quite a few for getting a feel how someone plays preflop.

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Well those stats certainly suggest that he is loose passive preflop, but to me they don't confirm that he wouldn't 3 bet with JJ. That was my point. He clearly has tight raising standards, but I am not certain you can say for sure they are as tight as Hero was making him seem.

On the flop unless villan has AA hero has at least 4.5 outs to improve to the likely winner. Folding on the flop getting 14-1 when you have a likely 4.5 outs just seems weak tight to me.

[JudoGirl]

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I[s] this a poor way to think? It makes sense to me, and seems +EV.

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lol...you got tptk...grow a set...or take up gin rummy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[John Paul]

In this case he had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and my hand is good. Maybe the lesson that should have been learned was that if he did not 3-bet KK in the past, he was unlikely to 3-bet KK or AA now.

Thanks for all of the analysis

[Aaron W.]

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Well those stats certainly suggest that he is loose passive preflop, but to me they don't confirm that he wouldn't 3 bet with JJ. That was my point. He clearly has tight raising standards, but I am not certain you can say for sure they are as tight as Hero was making him seem.

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Of course you're not certain, but do you really want to risk it?

Assuming that JJ is the lowest PP he would 3-bet with, and AK is the only non PP he would 3-bet with, what can he have? What outs do you have agaist them? You always have the backdoor flush, so I'll not repeat it everywhere.

AA = 3 ways == 0 outs
KK = 6 ways == 3 Ace outs
QQ = 3 ways == 3 Ace outs
JJ = 6 ways == 6 Ace or Queen outs
AK = 15 ways == 3 Queen outs

So on average, you've got 108/30 = 3.5 outs and the backdoor flush out for a total of 5 outs. It looks okay, but ...

1) You've got reverse implied odds working against you in a VERY big way. If you catch an ace, you must worry about the 18 ways he could have you beat. If you catch a queen, you must worry about the other 12 ways you might be beat. There's only 18% chance you're in the clear if you pair up.

2) Your backdoor flush draw requires a runner-runner draw, and you'll need to pay on the turn to see it. This means that you've got to look more at effective odds for this draw, and the odds are worse for you.

3) Given the previous 68 hands with only a single preflop raise, you're going against the flow to suggest that he will 3-bet JJ out of position. Maybe it was a bad run, and maybe the KK was him getting fancy, but I wouldn't bet on it here with this hand. (For example, I wouldn't advise folding KK because the read says he has AA. KK is much stronger than AQs with a backdoor flush draw.)

That's too much working against you to make this a good place to play.

[zram21]

I see what you are saying here and it makes some sense, but I think this pot is just way too big to give up on the flop for one more bet.

Of the possible hands you listed out the only hand that we would not call one more bet for on the flop is AA. Even if you knew what they were holding. Even without the backdoor flush draw and only 3 outs it would be profitable to call one more bet in a pot that size.

Certainly villan has tight preflop raising standards, but to put him on exactly AA based on what we have seen so far is just too weak for me.