10/20 6max: interesting (?) river decisions

[ctv1116]

Villian is a 58/11/2.1 player with a 3.1% C/R (which is twice what mine is).

Villian limps in the CO, I raise on the button with JdJc. Blinds fold, so we're HU to the flop.

Flop comes 3h7h2h. Villian leads, I raise, Villian 3bets, I call.

Turn is a 5s. Villian bets, I call.

River is 4h. Villian checks, I bet (???), Villian pauses then raises, I pause...

Pot size is currently 10.75BB

[ggbman]

I really cannot believe you bet that river. Usually be would just bet a flush or straight here if he wanted to put money in, so a call might be profitable. But that bet is really, really bad.

[bank]

I'm not sure why you bet that river...

I check that river every time...only better hands are going to call you and you aren't going to push this guy off a better hand....the bet definitely isn't for value. what hand is gonna call that you beat?

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
what hand is gonna call that you beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably wouldn't bet the river either, but villian is 58/11/2.1, so the answer to that question is...

87, 97, T7, Q7, K7, K5, K4, K3, K2, 88, 99, TT

[ggbman]

True, the bet is still very bad though.

[JrJordan]

I think you slowed down too fast with this. My usual line would be to raise this flop and call his 3-bet, then pop him again on the turn to charge a pair+flush draw the max. If a 4th heart hits, then you still likely have to call down but against some people can find a fold. This probably aint it.

That was a fun river card. It's the ultimate scare card for him to c/r with. Getting almost 11:1 I'd say a call wouldn't be awful, but when I'm playing well I can probably make a fold with a read. If the only reads against this guy are stats so far, then a call down is appropriate for meta/read/bigpot purposes.

Edit: I don't think the river value bet is that bad vs. this type of opponent. This type of player will call with any pair, including a 2 so there's plenty of hands that will call while we're ahead. 95% of the time this line occurs it means the EP player got scared of all the draws and just wants to see a showdown with whatever hand he flopped. The most likely at this point would've been a pair+draw combo, but you'd expect a made draw to bet this river, so a pair of 7's seems like a real possibility when he checks.

Meh, the value bet probably doesn't have much to it if we can only put him on low flopped pairs. It's not nearly as awful as everyone is making it out to be though.

[brettbrettr]

This looks like a really bad river bet to me. I think you have to fold to the c/r.

[Lurker4]

I call his 3-bet and raise the turn (and if 3-bet calldown), or cap the flop, probably the former. I don't like river bet against this particular opponent who will c/r a decent % of the time here. Check and take the showdown. Against a more passive opponent I can maybe see a river bet.

[yanicehand]

I don't hit the brakes so fast just because of a lag's 3 bet on the flop. I'd pop the turn, and I would check through the river.