10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?

[einbert]

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-If an ace comes, the pot is either split or you are beaten most of the time...

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-If a 9 comes, even worse...the best you could probably hope for here is a split pot...

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So it's impossible for my opponent to play KQ, QT or KT this way? What about T4 Q4 or K4? They all make sense and an ace or nine gives us the whole pot against all of these hands. Sure he has a flush some of the time but even a passive player doesn't need one to checkraise here.

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-If a Q comes are you going to be comfortable raising this river? Check call?

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I'm not always comfortable with every single play I make, but just the fact that playing a river Q makes me "uncomfortable" is not enough reason to discount my Q outs to less than 1.

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-then there is the chance he has a made flush and you're drawing dead

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Sure we are drawing dead some portion of the time.

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I didn't put any % on the above chances because it would be completely arbitrary,

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Actually it's totally essential if you want to come up with a real mathematical answer to this problem rather than just a problem based on your gut reaction. Take the time to do some math work on the problem and then you can figure out what is really correct. Gut instinct betrays us far too often, especially in tricky situations like this.

[jba]

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I would give usmore than six outs, here, maybe 6.5 for our straight outs and another 1 for our Q outs. Add in the fact that we get to act last on the river and I don't think folding the turn can be right. We have to figure out how to play the river which is probably going to be tough but still I think we have too many outs here to fold.

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let's figure this out.

P is probability villain has made flush
P1 is probably villain has one heart
36 blanks - we lose 1bb
6 clean straight outs - we lose 2bb (what's the line?) P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times
2 dirty straight outs - we lose 2bb (line?) P1 times, win 7.5bbs (1-P1) times
2 queens - we lose 2bb P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times

EV=(36/46*-1)+(8/46*(P*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))+(2/46*(P1*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))

it appears after looking at this that ev is neutral at about P=1/3 and P1=2/3. I don't think we're that good.

maybe you have a good river line though?

[einbert]

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You are vastly, and i mean VASTLY overestimating the range here that a villian with a .35 aggression factor has when he check raises this turn.

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I was trying to take into account his VPIP in addition to his aggression factor, which means that he is fairly aggressive relative to hand strength.

I agree we are drawing dead here some of the time, I'm going to try to figure out some way of estimating that chance and how we fare on the river when certain cards come off.

If we assume that this guy never checkraises here as a semibluff or with a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then sure we can fold the river UI. But I think that is a tough assumption to make based only on numbers.

[ggbman]

Yeah, in my analysis, i am assuming he just about never raises worse than 2 pair here. You could be right about the numbers, i'm just saying based on what i'm seeing from them we don't have many outs.

Gabe

[gildwulf]

I don't understand how you see 6.5 outs here.

As for the lack of math in my post, yea I was at work and talking through my intuitive approach to the hand. I said the math was arbitrary because we don't know how often we are drawing dead here; my intuition says we're dead here a lot and if you want to be generous we have 2-4 outs (at MOST) which makes it a fold based on pot odds.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
P is probability villain has made flush
P1 is probably villain has one heart
36 blanks - we lose 1bb
6 clean straight outs - we lose 2bb (what's the line?) P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times
2 dirty straight outs - we lose 2bb (line?) P1 times, win 7.5bbs (1-P1) times
2 queens - we lose 2bb P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times

EV=(36/46*-1)+(8/46*(P*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))+(2/46*(P1*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))

it appears after looking at this that ev is neutral at about P=1/3 and P1=2/3. I don't think we're that good.

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With 10 unknown hearts in the deck, there are 10 choose 2 ways for him to have a flush, so if we assume he calls with any two suited cards preflop there are about 90 ways for him to have a flush. However I think it's more correct to say he usually folds the lowest suited connectors, but calls with any suited ace and some other connectors and one gappers-
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 9 ways
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 8 9 or T - 3
T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 9 or 8 - 2
9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 8 or 7 - 2
8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 7 or 6 - 2
7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 6 or 5 - 2
6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus the 5 - 1
so likely 21 ways for him to have a flush


Other hands I put him on
T4s - 2 discount to 1
QT - 9 (3 times has one heart)
KQ - 9
K4s - 2
KT - 9 (3 times has one heart)
44 - 6
TT - 6 (2 times has one heart)
QQ - 6 discount to 3
KK - 6 discount to 3-
J9 besides Jh9h - 9 discount to 5 because of preflop call
(5 discounted to about 3 times has one heart)
AK - 12 discount to 4 because of postflop action (has one heart 4 times discounted to 1)
AJ besides A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 15 (6 times has one heart)
KJ - 12 discount to 3 because of postflop action (3 discount to 1 time has one heart)
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] plus a T Q or K offsuit - 8 discount to 4 because of postflop action (4 times discount to 2 has one heart)

So by the hand range and discounts I have so far:
P = 21/(21+56+19)
= 21/96
= 0.219
P1 = (3+3+2+3+1+6+1+2+21)/(21+56+19)
= 42/96
= 0.438


The problem with analysing this type of hand this way is it's very difficult to come up with the exact correct hand range and discount the combinations properly as well. So, please if you guys would let me know where I need to add in new hands, take some out or discount some in different ways and we can continue to have productive discussion about this hand. But if the numbers for P1 and P2 are correct and my assumptions are close it looks like we have a pretty solid call here on the turn.

I think a good starting line for the river would be to raise a nonheart A or 9 and call a three-bet (although it might be correct to fold to the threebet), and to just call the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. On the two queens, if we can raise/fold to threebet which seems likely then that's probably going to be best.

[ctv1116]

Wow, I'm an idiot, I didn't even realize I had an OESD. I'm glad this got some discussion, because I thought this was a pretty clear fold. I'd say he has a flush at least 75% of the time, two pair/set 20% of the time, and bluffing with either the ace of hearts or nothing 5% of the time. I think that's a fold on the turn, even with the 6 out OESD.

[einbert]

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I'd say he has a flush at least 75% of the time, two pair/set 20% of the time, and bluffing with either the ace of hearts or nothing 5%

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Where did these numbers come from?

[ctv1116]

out of my ass, but I think they're pretty accurate given his aggression number.