10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?

[ctv1116]

Villian is 68/2/0.35 after 250 hands; haven't seen him do anything tricky yet.

I open in MP with QcJc. Villain calls from the SB.

Flop is 4hTcQh. Villian checks, I bet, Villian calls.

Turn is Kh. Villian checks, I bet, Villian raises, Hero...

Pot is now 6.5BB.

[whodaman]

pretty easy muck i think... he has a flush or a straight more than a king here...

[jba]

i think this is a fold but I don't think it's that easy, it might be close. but fold.

[ggbman]

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pretty easy muck i think... he has a flush or a straight more than a king here...

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You might also want to consider Hero has the open ender to eh nut straight. A villian this passive worries me when he comes to life, but i think i like calling the turn raise and check-folding the river UI.

[einbert]

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i think i like calling the turn raise and check-folding the river UI.

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I think folding the turn would be pretty ridiculous.

The only question is whether or not we pay off the river unimproved, and I don't think it's clearcut.

[jba]

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You might also want to consider Hero has the open ender to eh nut straight. A villian this passive worries me when he comes to life, but i think i like calling the turn raise and check-folding the river UI.

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i really don't like calling the turn, I think the Ah 9h are very tainted. we're getting 6.5-1 which is almost enough for six outs but we have reverse implied odds here.

[jba]

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i think i like calling the turn raise and check-folding the river UI.

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I think folding the turn would be pretty ridiculous.

The only question is whether or not we pay off the river unimproved, and I don't think it's clearcut.

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nice timing huh [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[einbert]

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i really don't like calling the turn, I think the Ah 9h are very tainted. we're getting 6.5-1 which is almost enough for six outs but we have reverse implied odds here.

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I would give usmore than six outs, here, maybe 6.5 for our straight outs and another 1 for our Q outs. Add in the fact that we get to act last on the river and I don't think folding the turn can be right. We have to figure out how to play the river which is probably going to be tough but still I think we have too many outs here to fold.

[gildwulf]

All your outs are tainted, this is a fold:

-If an Ace, Jack or 9 comes, the pot is either split or you are beaten most of the time...
-If a Q comes are you going to be comfortable raising this river? Check call?
-then there is the chance he has a made flush and you're drawing dead

I didn't put any % on the above chances because it would be completely arbitrary, but I would say this is a definite fold due to reverse implied odds and the passivity of the opponent.

[ggbman]

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i really don't like calling the turn, I think the Ah 9h are very tainted. we're getting 6.5-1 which is almost enough for six outs but we have reverse implied odds here.

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I would give usmore than six outs, here, maybe 6.5 for our straight outs and another 1 for our Q outs. Add in the fact that we get to act last on the river and I don't think folding the turn can be right. We have to figure out how to play the river which is probably going to be tough but still I think we have too many outs here to fold.

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You are vastly, and i mean VASTLY overestimating the range here that a villian with a .35 aggression factor has when he check raises this turn. The river is a very easy muck UI, he just about never has worse than 2 pair here. I like calling the turn and calling the river if it's a J straight card. Even a Q is questionable against a villian like this, which means with the tainted outs, it could just be best to fold here. I'm going to stick to call the turn raise and call a river bet if we improve, but we are drawing dead here A LOT.

Gabe