Maximizing EV in a School Survey

[ctv1116]

So I was offered to do a survey for a psych student at our school (we get e-mails to do surveys for money often). In each given week, you are permitted to "bet" $1 to $5 on each of the 16 games, but the total you bet must be less than $40. If after the 6 weeks this survey runs, if you are negative, you don't lose any money, but if you are positive, they write a check for the amount you won.

Here's the interesting part: the spreads they give for each game is shaded 1.5-2 points from the standard Vegas/offshore lines.

Here are the lines they posted:

Sun 9/11/05
Ravens at Titans +5
Steelers at Texans +7.5
Jaguars at Colts -10.5
Lions at Bears +3.5
Vikings at Bengals -4.5
49ers at Eagles -14.5
Bills at Buccaneers -4
Patriots at Panthers +4.5
Falcons at Seahawks -2.5
Rams at Cardinals +1.5
Dolphins at Jets -7.5
Browns at Packers -8
Chargers at Broncos -4.5
Chiefs at Raiders +3
Saints at Giants -4.5
Redskins at Cowboys -7.5

So, clearly, you must be on all of the underdogs, but what would be the general strategy for spreading your bets around?

[DeucesUp]

<mumble under breath> damn Ivey league brats get all the luck ... <\mumble under breath> [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Well obviously your going to bet all $40 each week and with a max of $5 a game, I don't see any reason not to just go $5 on each of the 8 best lines you can find. You'd be even better off if you could concentrate your wagers even more on the best games, but within the rules $5 each on 8 games is the best you can do.

I'd just take the simple strategy of finding the lines which differ the most from the sportsbook concenus lines, but the most important aspect is picking up the key margins. The 3, the 3, the 3, the 7, the 6, the 10, maybe 14 and 17 and did I mention the 3?

So at first glance I'd look at:

Top picks:
Bills+4 (getting the 3 and a push on 4)
Bears+3.5

it looks like these are the only 2 you get both sides of the 3, next you're going to look at games you get onto or off of the 3 and maybe all the way thru the 7.

Chargers+4.5
Texans+7.5
Vikings+4.5
Saints+4.5
Raiders+3
Panthers+4.5
Redskins+7.5

There's 9 games, choose your favorite 8.

[JTrout]

(warning: novice advice coming)

I'd put all my weight on the lines that move across 3pts and 7pts.

ie. from 2 to 3.5 ; from 6.5 to 8 ; etc.


I'm always a little late! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ctv1116]

I guess I wasn't very clear in my initial explanation; you need to bet at least $1 on every game.

Your point is well taken, though; You should just bet $5 on the 6 most advantageous games and $1 on the remaining 10 games to maximize EV. I spread my games roughly by the edge I'd receive, betting $1 on some, 2.5 on otheres, and 5 on the obvious games, which was ill-advised, although I believe it will reduce my variance.

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I wasn't very clear in my initial explanation; you need to bet at least $1 on every game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, OK. I'd still try to concentrate your money as much as possible on the good games.

$1 minimum on each of the 16 Underdogs leaves $24. Therefore you can bump up 6 games from $1 to $5, choose my top 2 and your favorite 4 games from my second 7.

Once the bye weeks come you'll be able to bump a couple of more games up to $5.

[ QUOTE ]
Your point is well taken, though; You should just bet $5 on the 6 most advantageous games and $1 on the remaining 10 games to maximize EV. I spread my games roughly by the edge I'd receive, betting $1 on some, 2.5 on otheres, and 5 on the obvious games.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not going to hurt you much, anytime you pick dogs with 1.5-2 additional points, you're getting a great bet. And lowering your variance is fine, just depends on how important guaranting a win is relative maximizing EV with some risk is to you. But spreading your money around to 10 games instead of 6 isn't going to change your variance that much (especially by the end of your 6 week season), but if you're picking games where the extra points aren't giving you much of an edge, you're giving a fair amount of EV.

This week, I'd have no problem max betting my top 2 choices then spreading the extra money over my other 7. Jags, Dolphins, Browns would probably be OK too. Just don't bet games like Falcons, Cardinals or Titans where you're not getting any key numbers.

[NoChance]

I was going to sugest spreading the money out across all games anyway. You are given a point advantage on every game. I figured it would be more profitable to spread it out and use this to your advantage rather than just pick 8 games and throw $5 on each one. That is more of a "all or nothing" strategy. Since you can't lose, spread it out and use the points to your advantage.

Other have suggested games where the lines move across 3 or 7. Maybe put $3 on some of these and $2 on the rest. I think that would be my approach. If you truly know which games were the "best" games and put more weight on them, then you should be a professional handicapper.

[ctv1116]

See, there are a couple games where if you wanted to buy the points on Pinny, you'd have to lay as much as -180, while other games you'd only have to lay -120. I'd rather split it $5/$1 then $3/$3 or $4/$2.

[Uglyowl]

[ QUOTE ]
Other have suggested games where the lines move across 3 or 7. Maybe put $3 on some of these and $2 on the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

The spread between meaningful moves revolving around 3's and 7's should be much drastic than a $3/$2 split.