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| View Poll Results: Is calling the bet in the example a +EV play? | |||
| Yes, I can't show you the math however |
   
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3 | 25.00% |
| No and I can show you the math to prove it |
  
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2 | 16.67% |
| Yes and I can show you the math to prove it |
  
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1 | 8.33% |
| No, I can't show you the math either |
  
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6 | 50.00% |
| No but if change xy and/or z then it is +EV (Explain) |
  
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0 | 0% |
| Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#1
09-13-2005, 01:27 PM
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Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?
Ok, so basically I misread a line on Hollywood, thinking I was betting AZ +1.5 when really I was betting AZ -1.5. Thus, I am now stuck in a -EV reverse middle, where I will lose $5200 if the Stl/Az is won by exactly one point or is tied, and will win $81 if the winning margin is 2 or greater. Given that the winning margin is exactly 1 4.3% of the time, the EV of this bet is -$148.70. If I just take the reverse of each of the bets I've just done, I am guaranteed to lose $225.67. If you were in my shoes would you take the risk of the reverse middle, or aceept the sure loss?
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#2
09-13-2005, 01:36 PM
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Re: Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?
how bad is a $5200 loss for you?
Im assuming that this would be a huge blow to your bankroll, or else you would automatically take the less -EV situation. Losing ~$75 in EV doesnt seem too bad to me, if this is the case.
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#3
09-13-2005, 01:39 PM
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Re: Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?
I'd be sick if I lost $5200 on this play, would you? Take the hit and save your sanity.
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#5
09-13-2005, 02:16 PM
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Re: Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?
[ QUOTE ]
A $5200 loss would be about half of what I set aside for sports betting. [/ QUOTE ] take the sure loss. the amount of EV you'd lose by losing half your roll (from not being able to bet as big and such) is probably higher then the $75.
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#6
09-13-2005, 06:16 PM
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Re: Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?
Take the sure loss if your a long term winning sports better because your long term EV on the money should more than off-set $77 extra in vig. There is a value of having actual $$$$ on hand, dont forget that.
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#7
09-13-2005, 07:59 PM
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Re: Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?
I chose take the sure loss. I think the theory here, though I don't think sklansky is a great sports bettor, but his ideas can come into play: Sometimes it is better to pass up the greater EV situation now, in order to have an even higher ev situation later. Which, I am sure you will have.
But, you can also let it ride and find out if God hates you. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] craig
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