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#32
07-20-2005, 08:28 PM
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Re: a 2+2 oddity...a postflop problem
Well, I feel that if he didn't really like his hand, he's going to back down here. Granted, he could be bluffing, or he could have KQ, but, with another big turn bet, I feel the chances that I'm beat here are much greater. It also let's me get away from this hand with 800 chips still intact to make a run later in the tourney.
On the flop I thought I was beat, the turn confirmed it for me, and I didn't go broke which I feel a lot of people would have. My concern is that this is negative reinforcement of a poor play. Though, I have gotten in so many times with TPTK vs a set where I *knew* he had a set but didn't lay it down for the reasons you all have given me. I decided to try and play this one to my instincts and I was correct... 
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#33
07-20-2005, 08:35 PM
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Re: a 2+2 oddity...a postflop problem
I don't think it's at all ridiculous to think villain could have QJ of hearts, specifically. He continues to like his hand because he still has TP and now he's picked up the flush draw, as well. Villain then decides to push his opponents and hope his play makes his opponent (our Hero) to do exactly what he did...fold a better hand...but he's armed with the comfort of the hearts now if he gets called or rr'ed.
I dunno, I still think villain's overplaying KQ here a lot of the time, as well...and there are some times where you're chopping with another AQ. Sure, there are a few times that 66 is a possibility...probably not 22 as much...and very rarely 77. I just think these other scenarios are happening much more often and that putting him to the test on the flop is a better option... Well, rather -- that calling and waiting for the turn does not give you enough new information to justify the call for 20% of your stack instead of the push. Obviously, it worked out in this situation...congrats. I wasn't sitting at the table, and maybe you should trust your instincts. From looking at it on paper, I'll still stand by my original argument. But nh.
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#34
07-20-2005, 08:41 PM
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Re: a 2+2 oddity...a postflop problem
I am not trying to argue that pushing the flop is bad, or that it's even a worse play than mine, like I had said, I was seriously thinking about pushing the flop with it.
I posted this more as a question to how people sniff out sets or if they just go broke against them. I guess I don't play the sngs thinking "I put in 20% of my stack" I don't mind that as long as I make the right play and leave myself with enough chips, which I think 80% of my stack does this. I dunno, I can completely see what you're saying, and I will definitely get bluffed some times playing like this. Hell, this is probably -EV even posting this cuz i'm sure everyone is licking their lips waiting to get into the next game with me. At any rate, I thought it was an interesting hand, but, I guess I'm the only one who agrees with me, so not much room for discussion, haha.
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#35
07-20-2005, 08:44 PM
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Re: a 2+2 oddity...a postflop problem
Hey...I think it's an interesting hand, as well. And when a player develops instincts...sometimes you've gotta go with it. Nice post.
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#36
07-20-2005, 08:52 PM
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Re: a 2+2 oddity...a postflop problem
I've never played at anything higher then the 33s so I may just be a noob, but I think you made the correct play. I know that with SNGs, a lot of what we do is based upon what the numbers dictate, but SNGs are still poker and isn't poker about making decisions like this based upon your intuition and your reads?
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