sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop

[Worrots]

My favorite part of this hand was actually DN's reaction. He asked if the guy really meant to bet 1K, then leaned way over in his chair to get a good look at the guy who raised it to 20xbb preflop. It's like he was thinking "I want to remember you..."

Agreed on the discussion of Farha's push a set or fold plan.

[ClaytonN]

OrangeKing put it about as well as I could.

[unfrgvn]

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sidenote: if you ever watch the Travel Channel's Vegas shows, that was the guy who claims to be an expert video poker player, and knows all the odds. He's written some gambling books. I'm sure someone remembers his name, but I don't...

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Anthony Curtis

[jedi]

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Isn't Sammy 8.9:1 to flop a set without Curtis also flopping a set?

And he'll still lose about about 9% of time on the safest flops (no backdoor draws) and 41% of the time on the scariest flops (gutshot with flush and set draws).

My guess is that is a marginally minus EV call. However, about 10% of the time he should flop big enough that he knows he can go all-in as a 90% favorite, and given his big chip stack plus meta-game considerations, it's a fine gamble.

I think he just has to be willing to fold a set if Curtis shows strength when an A, K, Q flops or a 3-flush flops.

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I think Sammy can make a good read on this board and get away from the hand if Curtis shows strength here. If we believe that Curtis isn't some donk who raises 20xBB with any 2 cards just to play LAGGish, then Sammy will be really careful. Remember, he just doubled up. No reason to throw it all away when you might be beat with set over set (if the A or K flops).

I think Farha played this well, got lucky and stacked off someone overplaying AA.

[Prime Time]

His name is Tony Curtis, and is a professional gambler and knows how to play BJ correctly.

[skiier04]

So is Sammy check/folding a 3Ax flop??? Or at least bet/folding???

[Shillx]

Is this post some kind of a joke?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

When you raise 10% of your stack preflop with AA, you are moving in on the flop everytime (I don't know the story but I'm guessing he open pushed). If someone else found something on the flop, good for him.

When he gets called, he will have ~10% equity about 91.5% of the time. The other 8.5% of the time it will be set over set and he will have ~95% equity.

EVwhen called = .915*.1*T20k + .085*.95*T20k - T9k = - T5,555

EVno call = + T2000

Total EV = .882*T11000 + .118*T3445 - T9000 = ~ + T1100

So he started the hand with T10,000 and after pushing the flop he has increased his chipstack to ~T10,100. Not great with aces, but not a total disaster.

Moving in off the flop is clearly the right play. Checking and giving free cards to the smaller pairs is a total disaster since hands like 33 aren't going to call a bet unless they flop a set. If the 33 will call pot sized bets on a T86 flop then it is a different story, but you have to end the hand now with AA if the small pair will give up UI.

Brad

[RunningSixes]

If we assume Sammy never folds when he flops a 3 and curtis never folds on any flop then the math is as follows:

out of 8.5 times:

7.5 time sammy will fold and lose 1000 (-7500)
1 time he will flop a set and win the hand 81% of the time( and 10k from crutis) (+8100)

The average EV of the call is ~71.

[BarronVangorToth]

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Anyone else add on anything here or correct some stuff?

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Maybe he was confident he could get AA / KK to lay it down due to his image.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

Here is Anthony Curtis' side:

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I'm up to $14,300. Then trouble. I pick up AA. This is a real problem hand in this situation. I bet $1,000 and Farha called after a lot of thought, looking at Negreanu and saying "you gotta gamble, right." He had 33 and the flop came 3-4-9. I bet 6,000, he raised all-in, and I called. Two big mistakes on my part. First, there was no reason to bet as much as I did after the flop. Betting the size of the pot, about $2,000, would have made him lay it down had he missed the flop. Second, I have to know he's hit a set at this point (though I was thinking possible KK, maybe even QQ). Had I made the better bet, I might have been able to throw the aces. Honestly, I'm not sure though. TV table and a chance to bounce Farha and go to $29,000 was too enticing. I think the deciding factor was that I don't feel I'm good enough right now to throw away aces and play on against the best players in the world, so I took my shot.


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