J7 suited - keep fishin?

#1 12-19-2005, 09:27 AM

Party 2/4 (9 players) The BB and UTG are typical, looser than optimal but not calling stations. CO has $4.50 in front of him.

I am in SB with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 4 players fold, CO calls, button folds, I complete, BB checks.

Flop : 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players, 4 SB)
I bet, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players, 3.75 BB)
I bet, BB raises, UTG 3-bets, (CO calls for his last .50), I....

crunchy1 · #2 12-19-2005, 10:03 AM

Why would you do anything else except cap it?

Pharity · #3 12-19-2005, 10:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you do anything else except cap it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you may have only 9 outs (plus a little for the Q split) if UTG or BB has QJ. It is very unlikely that you have the best hand in this spot. You are possibly tied with someone though. I don't think a cap is a good idea, because you want the overlay that BB gives you. He could very likely be raising with two pair that he folds to a cap. But UTG OTOH is very unlikely to reraise without a straight on this board. I would just call.

EDIT: I see that you want to fold 2 pair for BB, given the size of the pot. Then maybe a cap may be a good idea? But i would not bet the river except if a club falls, cuz you'r in trouble against UTG.

Nick C · #4 12-19-2005, 10:20 AM

UTG seems to love his hand. QJ is entirely possible, but some other hands are as well.

QJ is 12 combos. So is 76, but that hand isn't as popular (and 76s is only 3 combos). A slowplayed or turned set (12 combos total) is another consideration. So is a slowplay (that backfired badly) of a big pocket pair. (I'm not ruling out two pair for UTG, but his turn 3-bet represents a lot of strength, and I think if he doesn't have a straight, he'll usually have 99 or something he slowplayed.)

I'd probably be scared enough about QJ just to call. UTG might now be scared of the board and action if he holds a set, so although a lot of players love to slowplay, I think we should discount the set possibilities somewhat.

Pharity · #5 12-19-2005, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think we should discount the set possibilities somewhat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But BB is getting 1:12 for a call, which makes it profitable to call with 2 pairs or (of course) a set. Maybe its better to cap it to cut down the odds (and you may - although unlikely - be ahead of UTG as well) and then just c/c the river. How about that?

crunchy1 · #6 12-19-2005, 10:33 AM

There's no way in hell that we don't have enough equity to pump this pot. There are 12 combinations that are currently ahead and we have 9 outs against 11 of those.

#7 12-19-2005, 10:35 AM

Don't be a puss. Cap it.

#8 12-19-2005, 10:40 AM

Do you have any reads saying that he would limp QJ from UTG? That seems a bit too loose to me and I would definately cap the turn.

TheHip41 · #9 12-19-2005, 10:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you do anything else except cap it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you may have only 9 outs (plus a little for the Q split) if UTG or BB has QJ. It is very unlikely that you have the best hand in this spot. You are possibly tied with someone though. I don't think a cap is a good idea, because you want the overlay that BB gives you. He could very likely be raising with two pair that he folds to a cap. But UTG OTOH is very unlikely to reraise without a straight on this board. I would just call.

EDIT: I see that you want to fold 2 pair for BB, given the size of the pot. Then maybe a cap may be a good idea? But i would not bet the river except if a club falls, cuz you'r in trouble against UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the 'pussy live player mantra'.

"I don't have the nuts, I call."

Nick C · #10 12-19-2005, 10:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we should discount the set possibilities somewhat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But BB is getting 1:12 for a call, which makes it profitable to call with 2 pairs or (of course) a set. Maybe its better to cap it to cut down the odds (and you may - although unlikely - be ahead of UTG as well) and then just c/c the river. How about that?

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG has QJ, then we want BB in. If UTG has a set, we want BB to stay in. (If UTG has a set, we lose if the board pairs anyway, except on the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].) There's a remote chance UTG has T8 and BB has 93, but I think we can mostly disregard that. T8 seems pretty unlikely for UTG.

It's when UTG has a worse straight (or something he's losing to us badly with) that we want to put pressure on BB, and even then we don't mind him staying in unless he has 4 outs or better. He's not folding anything we want him to except maybe two pair, and if his two pair is, say, 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then he only has 3 outs against us, which isn't too troubling.

Since we only want to put pressure on him under a specific set of circumstances (and even then it's close), I think we can let him call just one more bet.

There is the question of whether or not we have a cap for value, though, and I'm not sure.