Party $2/4 LO8 hand question

Any suggestions on how I might have played this differently? I had Larking13 as loose and weak, and thevoice as tight-aggressive.

***** Hand History for Game 3225975702 *****
$2/$4 Omaha Hi/Lo - Monday, December 19, 00:23:44 EDT 2005
Table Table 66028 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: pstephany ( $59.12 )
Seat 4: BoilerATC ( $102.75 )
Seat 6: ospdotcom ( $104.85 )
Seat 2: L8toPlay ( $66 )
Seat 9: larking13 ( $56.75 )
Seat 1: HUGHGRECTI0N ( $95.75 )
Seat 7: PACKROWNR ( $93.63 )
Seat 10: booraa ( $58.50 )
Seat 8: thevoice ( $69.75 )
Seat 3: z86_35_56_92 ( $93.75 )
PACKROWNR posts small blind [ $1 ].
thevoice posts big blind [ $2 ].

Holecards:
Dealt to BoilerATC [ Ah Qh 2c Kc ]
CALL larking13, $2
CALL booraa, $2
FOLD HUGHGRECTI0N
CALL L8toPlay, $2
FOLD z86_35_56_92
RAISE BoilerATC , $4
FOLD pstephany
CALL ospdotcom, $4
FOLD PACKROWNR
RAISE thevoice, $4
CALL larking13, $4
FOLD booraa
FOLD L8toPlay
CALL BoilerATC , $2
CALL ospdotcom, $2

Flop: [ 8c, Kh, 7c ]
BET thevoice, $2
CALL larking13, $2
RAISE BoilerATC , $4
CALL ospdotcom, $4
RAISE thevoice, $4
CALL larking13, $4
RAISE BoilerATC , $4
CALL ospdotcom, $4
CALL thevoice, $2
CALL larking13, $2

Turn: [ 2s ]
BET thevoice, $4
CALL larking13, $4
RAISE BoilerATC , $8
CALL ospdotcom, $8
RAISE thevoice, $8
CALL larking13, $8
CALL BoilerATC , $4
CALL ospdotcom, $4

River: [ 7h ]
BET thevoice, $4
CALL larking13, $4
CALL BoilerATC , $4
FOLD ospdotcom
thevoice shows [ 3d, 3c, Ac, As ] two pairs aces and sevens .
thevoice shows 8 7 3 2 A for low .
larking13 shows [ Th, 9d, Jd, 7s ] three of a kind sevens .
BoilerATC doesn't show [ Ah, Qh, 2c, Kc ] two pairs, kings and sevens.
larking13 wins $59 from the main pot with three of a kind sevens.
thevoice wins Lo ($59) from the main pot with 8 7 3 2 A .

[kitaristi0]

On the flop I don't cap it. You have the nut low draw but no counterfeit protection, and your flush draw is only King-high. I would probably just call, instead of raise the first time around. It seems likely that another A2 may be out there, and your high prospects are not great, though not horrible.

On the turn your low has been counterfeited, and you only have two pair and a king-high flush draw which may or may not be good even if you make it: no reason to raise here. I might even fold. The pot is huge, which is a good reason to call. However, even if you make your flush or boat, only the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] gives you the nuts. With this many people clearly interested in the pot, I probably fold the turn.

On the river the pot is huge, but can you really expect to be good here with two pair in this pot with 3 other players clearly highly interested in it? I probably wouldn't even make a crying call here, I just don't see how you can be good.

[jb9]

Preflop is good.

I don't think I'd raise the flop, and I definitely don't cap it. You have some nice draws. You can't semibluff because it seems like everyone's fold button is broken, so wait til you hit one of those draws to start throwing lots of money in.

The turn kills your hand. It's a nice big pot, but you can't get more than 1/2 of it now, and your high draw isn't that great. I would seriously consider folding.

Looks like it was a good table to play at. You could get quartered and still come out OK. At those types of tables (i.e., lots of calling, not much folding), it can be profitable to just wait for a real strong hand and let everyone pay you off.

Scooping one or two big pots can make the whole session profitable as long as you don't put in too much $$ on hands that miss or get counterfeited.

[SteveY]

i think preflop is fine. when thevoice reraises, i would guess he had something like AA2, A23 or maybe A2KK / A2QQ. Stuff like that.

on the flop: i think the flop raise is great. the worst spot we could be in would be if an Acehigh flush draw and another A2 was out against us. i think the fact that we have the 2c is pretty important, as it makes it less likely that thevoice would have an Ace club draw. He would have to have Ac3c or Acxc. Accc should be only a small concern since he reraised pre, so he would need something like Ac234c, and AcA24c, or maybe AcA34c and Ac24Qc. He probably wont have a dry Acxc here basically. Ac3c is a legit concern, but its a small part of his range. I think we gain a lot when he doesnt have Ac3c, which is more often. So even though he could have Ac3c, it doesnt happen often enough to disuade us from raising for value, espeically with larking in between us. Also having TP adds to our equity. It basically acts as a two pair draw, so having it is helpful since we can also win by catching two pair if we miss the flush draw. we are probably going to the river anyway, so having a good pair helps.

If our flush draw is best, i dont think we care how many A2 are out vs us, since even if they hit their low, we have a legit draw for the high as well. anyways i just plugged in the actual hands to twodimes and i guessed what ospdotcom might have (another A2). We weren't in that bad shape. http://tinyurl.com/dtout if you fiddle around and change our Kc into A Tc, then we are in worse shape. and if you change AA33 into AA23 with the flush draw, then we are in bad shape too.

i think the flop cap was too much b/c thevoice's 3bet narrows down his range a lot. Probably to something like a set of K's, an a high flush draw all combined with either the nut low or second nut low draw possibly with counterfeit protection. Like when he threebets I cant think of something that he could have that doesnt hurt us in some way, unless he would pump a dry A23 there. But hes TAG so that seems unlikely. He most likely has a good 2-way hand, which is generally bad for us. But i just gave him A2KK in twodimes and we still seemed to be above 25% equity, so maybe i am wrong here.

turn: i really think you should slow down here. Your low draw is crap now, and its not even clear if you have the best flush draw or even the best hand at that point. The pot is big (i dunno how big) but you can just count some of your odds to see if you should continue. you are probably only drawing to half, so just cut the potsize in half then count your outs.

River is fine i think. We would be hoping that we could still beat larking (likely), and that our two pair beats thevoice's high (possible since Ac3cxx/AA23). opsdotcom, well its hard to read his hand :/

am i wrong anywhere?

edit: eh i missed that your 2 pair was killed on the river. maybe you should fold then. just look at the pot size i guess. Your paying for half and the pot is 30 BBs. So if you think 15-1 is enough for your AKK77. wed have to hope that thevoice has ac3c, larking is really bad and can actually have something worse than twopair, and that opsdotcom cant beat twopair or was going low, or has just a low with A3. seems pretty thin.

[benwood]

Preflop:This is a good raise,but when it gets 3-bet,suggesting AA &/or A2+back-up,I would not cap it.Since you have no back-up for your low,you don't want to build such a large pot that you can't get away from it if you're counterfitted.

Flop:The first raise is ok,but just a call,my preference,would be ok,too.Again,you don't want to build a large pot & then get counterfitted.

Turn:Your hand is weak now.Call in last position & hope to fill up or hit a club.

River:You missed.Fold.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Any suggestions on how I might have played this differently?

[/ QUOTE ]

Baxter - Yes.

1st betting round: You have a very nice starting hand, one that will often end up making the nuts at the showdown. You want non-nut hands paying you off when you have the nuts on the river. The trouble with raising here is somebody may make it three bets and knock out the weak low and flush draws. (And indeed, that is exactly what happened).

2nd betting round: Raise is O.K. Limp would have been O.K. too. And of course you continue after the re-raise. Since you've already raised, why not go ahead and make it four bets here?

3rd betting round: The deuce on the turn was a disaster for you! The raise by you is much too aggressive. It's hard for me to see even calling after such a horrid turn card for your hand.

4th betting round: Hard not to call here because of the size of the pot. Next time don't raise when the turn card destroys your hand and maybe you won't get stuck.

Showdown: If I played a hand this way, I'd damned sure show down my cards for advertising value.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

I truly appreciate the feedback. My thinking preflop was that I had three limpers already, had A2, and was ds. After the BB raise, I didn't cap it, though some people think I did. I figured I was up against another A2.
Four see the flop, I have top pair, second nut flush draw, nut low draw, and backdoor flush draw. The cap here might have been too much, since I had a naked A2.
The turn obviously killed my low, but gave me two pair. I raised hoping to get larking13 out of the pot after his call. After he cold called two big bets after the big blind raised, I knew he wasn't getting out and didn't cap.
The river was death, but I felt I had to call with that big of a pot.

[Ironman]

I understand your thinking on all streets, but sometimes you have to fold in this game when you get a bad card...even when the pot is big. There are plenty of times to bluff...but this isn't one of them.

Your back-up plan is a draw to the non nut flush. If you already had a made flush in your hand...then I would like your turn action a lot more. But you've got nothing.

If my numbers are correct, you put $14 into the pot before the turn...then put another $16 into the pot after the turn trying to win back your original $14.

Cut your losses. Fold the turn.

Dave

You are correct, I had put $14 in after the flop betting was over, but there was $61 in the pot now. I see it as I'm trying to win $30 at this point, not my original $14 back. Running the numbers on pokerhand.org, my EV at this point is .181, with the AA33 at .667 and the 79TJ at .153.
I'm too new with these numbers to interpret them well, so am I justified in staying in this pot knowing these numbers? The calculations tell me that I win the high 33% of the time here.

[DOMIT]

[ QUOTE ]
You are correct, I had put $14 in after the flop betting was over, but there was $61 in the pot now. I see it as I'm trying to win $30 at this point, not my original $14 back. Running the numbers on pokerhand.org, my EV at this point is .181, with the AA33 at .667 and the 79TJ at .153.
I'm too new with these numbers to interpret them well, so am I justified in staying in this pot knowing these numbers? The calculations tell me that I win the high 33% of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, winning 33% is NOT what it's telling you... look at the two dimes result again and notice this line:
... <u>"528 enumerated boards containing"</u>

The 528 is the number of possible boards after the given flop with the given hands. If you look at the numbers under the columns, for example "LOtie", this is the number of hands, not a percentage.

Since from the flop the low is not already there, you'll see that the numbers under the "Hi" columns equal the 528, but not the low, since there are 'x' number of boards where the low will not get there.

Since you're sharing A2 with someone else, you'll never 'win' the low, but you'll tie the low 333-out-of-528 times. So 63% of the time, you'll get a quarter of the low. Only 18.6% of the time, will you win high. The quartering of the low and the low percentage on winning high is why the EV is only 27.8% for your hand.

While I know that you put a lot into the pot, with the jamming that went on at the flop, it certainly seemed like you could get out after the turn. Unless they're being complete donkeys (it is Party, and I've never played the 2/4 there), but with all the raising, someone has the nut flush draw with either A2 or A3 (maybe A23) and with all the calling, I'd think that someone else has A2. With all that out there, I (personally) do not see any more raising after the flop. You _don't_ want to lose anyone in the case you get quartered. {I don't know why, but there are some people that just will _not_ lay down the nut low, or the draw to the nut low, even when it seems obvious that someone else has the same hand.. look at the A299 hand.. only a 17% EV, cause that's all he has, and he should know that he's getting quartered.}