Rocket -128

Clarkmeister · #1 10-15-2005, 10:13 AM

While the Cards have done OK vs Clemens the last few years, Minute Maid could be a nightmare for Morris. Anyone else like both Clemens and the over 7.5 here?

mrbaseball · #2 10-15-2005, 10:45 AM

I see this line (-128) as very close to fair with no real edge. The key for Houston is getting into the StL pen which has been pretty awful in this playoff season. Since Morris hasn't gone more than 6 in his last 7 starts this may very well happen. But Clemens generally doesn't go deep either. I do however like the Astros pen better. The 2 Astros that have hurt Morris the most over the years are Bagwell and Lamb. Bagwell probably won't get a swing against him though.

If I had to bet this one I'd bet Houston and if I had to bet the total I'd bet over. But I don't really see enough edge here to make a play. If the line drifts a bit more towards the Cards I may pull the trigger but I doubt it will with the respect Clemens always gets in the line.

TheGame1020 · #3 10-15-2005, 11:01 AM

I like the over, Clemens has been tailing off his amazing start earlier this year. As you also said MM Park could be a nightmare for Morris. The Astros seem to be scoring more runs lately??? And we know the Cards can score runs even off a pitcher as good as Clemens. Hopefully, Sanders will get into the lineup also as he has provided a lot of offense for them in the post season.

DougOzzzz · #4 10-15-2005, 11:05 AM

Not really. I think Clemens' season is somewhat of a fluke. Obviously, he is great, but I don't think he is any better than (edited, used to say as good as but reconsidered) Chris Carpenter. No idea why Minute Maid would be a nightmare for Morris.

Edit: I think the over is probably a good play, though.

Clarkmeister · #5 10-15-2005, 11:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not really. I think Clemens' season is somewhat of a fluke. Obviously, he is great, but I don't think he is any better than (edited, used to say as good as but reconsidered) Chris Carpenter. No idea why Minute Maid would be a nightmare for Morris.

Edit: I think the over is probably a good play, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Morris has had "fly ball that goes out of the yard-itis" for the last two years. The one thing in his favor is that he's had extra rest, which has traditionally helped him.

#6 10-15-2005, 11:30 AM

I going with the over in both games. Astro's should hit a couple pop flys/low line drives that go over the wall in left since it's only 210 feet away. (see berkmans' grandslam)

Bill C · #7 10-15-2005, 12:37 PM

Earlier in the year, Clemens could be counted on for a good solid 7 innings or so, but in his last 6 outings (starts) he has failed to even make it thru 6 innings 4 times. The way I rate pitchers suggests there isn't a lot left in his tank, and I think the Cardinal hitters will be able to tee off on him today. Morris should be OK in MM Stadium.

No opinion on the total.

I took StL +119.
bc

mother_brain · #8 10-15-2005, 02:46 PM

Trust me when I say this thing is going over. Its not a lock but theres a lot of ways for it to happen. The left field wall accounts for three runs by itself. The cardinals know this is the only way the Astros are able to put together offense and both teams will be aiming for this short porch. Don't think they aim for it? Why do you think the same guy caught two of the homeruns in that 18 inning game, because thats where every hitter on the Astros team trys to hit the ball. Against Morris, a couple of them will get it done. Some ways to get over.

1. Most likely Morris gets rocked for 4 or 5 runs and is out by the 3rd. This makes STL have to play catchup and started swinging for the fences.

2. Clemens gets knocked out by the 5th and STL has astros bullpen for a couple of innings before lidge comes in and shuts them down.

I don't know what other reasons I got. But my play for this game was as follows.

Big bet on the over
Small Parlay on the over and STL moneyline at +120 i think it was.

Better hurry, now that i've posted this amazing info the line will surely be moving. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

sublime · #9 10-15-2005, 04:25 PM

clemens and the over are somewhat anticorrelated. if you suspect clemens to pitch well, then the chances of there being a bottom of the ninth are small, lessening the value on the over.

nevermind the over has been pounded to death already [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

lorinda · #10 10-15-2005, 04:51 PM

Excuse the stupid Brit question.

Is the roof being closed such a huge home field advantage because it keeps the crowd noise in, or is there some other reason to do with being used to the climate?

Lori