Party NL100 - Overpair all in on flop??

AgileMike · #1 03-27-2005, 12:53 AM

Comments please...

Hand 1: Villian is 57%VPIP;19%PFR;1.2AF;114 hands
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Hero ($101.45)
UTG ($271.92)
Button ($119.38)
SB ($18.1)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, Button raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, UTG folds, Button calls $7.

Flop: ($21.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $20, Button raises to $50, Hero calls $71.45 (All-In), Button calls $41.45.

Turn: ($204.40) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($204.40) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $204.40

Results in white below: 
Hero has As Ad (two pair, aces and sixes).
Button has Td Th (full house, tens full of sixes).
Outcome: Button wins $204.40. 

Hand 2 : Villian is 34%VPIP;3.3PFR;.57AF;89 hands

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

BB ($540.3)
Hero ($98.05)
MP ($239.05)
CO ($45.57)
Button ($79.25)
SB ($37)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
Hero raises to $7, MP calls $7, 4 folds.

Flop: ($15.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP raises to $30, Hero calls $76.05 (All-In), MP calls $61.05.

Turn: ($197.60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($197.60) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $197.60

Results in white below: 
Hero has As Ah (one pair, aces).
MP has 2d 2c (three of a kind, twos).
Outcome: MP wins $197.60. 

I'll explain my logic or lack thereof:

Hand 1:
I'm ahead of KK,QQ,JJ,99,88,77, and 2 diamonds. I'm obviously way behind TT, 44, 66. I'm pushing instead of calling because I believe I'm ahead, and don't want to give anything to the draws. It's a push or fold decision in my mind. I'm I correct in thinking this all in is +EV?

Hand 2:
Similar situation except I'm almost drawing dead to 34. Again, I've seen KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99 so many times in this situation I think my push is +EV.

Comments????

Raven · #2 03-27-2005, 05:00 AM

I'm all-in there also, I dont think you can fold here.

xorbie · #3 03-27-2005, 05:56 AM

Here's the deal with Hand 1. In not being results oriented, I think it might be good to just call against this guy. His 19% PF raise mains he could have any two paint here, so I would call and check to him depending on the flop. I still like your play here, because you're only behind TT, and he seems like the type of player who will call here with JJ, QQ and KK.

Hand 2 is no good. You're raise is a bit on the high side, which could tell them what you have. This guy seems really passive post flop, so his min-raise tells you strength. No reason to push all in here.

The problem with overpairs is that there are definetely enough douchebags on party who will pay off when you move all in almost regardless of the flop. The reason this works is that this is their mentality as well with good one pair hands (over pair, TPTK). However, this is how we get payed off with sets. It's also how decent players get payed off well with sets against us, by using the stupidity of the average player against us.

This is why getting a solid read is so important, if only to seperate the douchebags from the decent players.

AgileMike · #4 03-27-2005, 11:43 AM

Hand 2:
I don't give away much information about my hand. I always open raise for 6-7 preflop. The players are still playing it like it's a $2 blind, and I like to make the pots as big as possible preflop. In other words, my open raises of 6-7 are getting called often.

I don't push on the flop, what would my action be? I think I've got to fold if I don't push. Do I call the reraise and fold to any turn or river bet unless I catch my 2-outer?
Check and call off my whole stack?

pho75 · #5 03-27-2005, 01:32 PM

Hand #2
Take another look at his PT stats. Those are the classic FISH stats. VPIP - HIGH, PFR - LOW, AF - LOW. If he hand a hand you could beat he would be CALLING you, not raising. You can never know what he has, but I would put his chances of having a set at about 80%.

What about this idea?
I think that the choice is call or fold. If you call and a club, 3, or 7 comes he might slow down and you could check it down. You also have a 10% chance of hitting an ace by the river IF you can get there. If he puts in any kind of real bet on the turn or river I would fold.