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#1
12-30-2005, 02:09 AM
 HighStakesPro Junior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 6
Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

After over a year of playing poker online for stakes that were too high for my bankroll, I think I've finally learned my lesson, and I'm trying to play with a proper strategy that will insure that I gradually increase my bankroll and insure that i have virtually no chance of going broke.

I am following Mark Blade's reccomendation of four hundred big bets. I am four-tabling \$0.50/1 Limit Hold'em (full table) on PokerStars, and I started with \$400. I have forced myself to play absolutely nothing else. I am keeping track of my results with CardPlayer's Poker Analyst, and so far after 76:36 of total playing time, I have made \$116.50 for a total of 1.52 BB/hour. I am adding up the time for each individual table I play, so for every one hour of real time, it amounts to approximately four hours of total playing time, so the figure is really 1.52 BB per table per hour. Poker Analyst also tells me that my standard deviation, through 19 sessions of around one hour each (12 wins 7 losses), is 22.62. Here is what I want to know:

1. Does multi-tabling increase my fluctuation/volatility or increase my risk of going broke wiht 400 BB?
2. Is it accurate for me to record four hours of time if I play for one hour at four tables?
3. How many hours and/or sessions do I need to play for my hourly rate and standard deviation to be stable enough to be truthfully reflected by my results?
4. What is a "typical" standard deviation, and if my standard deviation is low enough, can I jump up to \$1/2, or whatever the next level is, with fewer big bets in my bankroll? How low would my standard deviation have to be to do this?
5. Once I have acccurate enough figures for hourly rate and standard deviation, how do I then calculate what my bankroll should be? What is the formula?
6. Is there any literature about bankroll strategy and formulas (other than Blade, who I have read) that would be helpful to me?

Whoever has gotten to this point, thank you for reading the entire query and hopefully answering some of my questions.
#2
12-30-2005, 10:13 AM
 kitaristi0 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Strawberry Fields Posts: 109
Re: Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

Here's some great stuff about bankroll and risk of ruin.
#3
12-30-2005, 10:39 AM
 crunchy1 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Boogie Woogie!! Posts: 785
Re: Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

[ QUOTE ]
1. Does multi-tabling increase my fluctuation/volatility or increase my risk of going broke wiht 400 BB?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. It actually reduces your variance because the increase # of hands per hour gets you to the long run faster. Your 400BB bankroll requirement is not dependant on the number of tables you choose to play.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Is it accurate for me to record four hours of time if I play for one hour at four tables?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. You should really consider getting Poker Tracker. It's the "gold-standard" for statistic/record tracking. In terms of online play we refer to win rates in terms of Big Bets per 100 hands. This allows for a standard of comparison regardless of the number of tables/hands played per hour.

[ QUOTE ]
3. How many hours and/or sessions do I need to play for my hourly rate and standard deviation to be stable enough to be truthfully reflected by my results?

[/ QUOTE ]
For your hourly rate - A LONG time. In fact - that you are asking this question implies that this is something you probably shouldn't be concerning yourself with at this point. Just worry about playing good poker. If you can learn to play good poker your stats will fall into place over time.

[ QUOTE ]
4. What is a "typical" standard deviation, and if my standard deviation is low enough, can I jump up to \$1/2, or whatever the next level is, with fewer big bets in my bankroll? How low would my standard deviation have to be to do this?

[/ QUOTE ]
In terms of moving up - your biggest concern should be that you are a winning player at the current level you're at. Generally after about 10,000 hands - or about 40 hours of 4-tabling - you should have a pretty good idea where you're at. There's nothing wrong with taking shots during that time - possibly leading you to moving up after only 5,000 hands. The big keys are A) to know that you're most likely a winning player at the level you're at and B) be prepared to move back down to your current level if a shot at the next level fails initially. Many players are constantly moving up and down taking shots at trying to crack into the next level.

Good Luck!
Crunch
#4
12-30-2005, 02:11 PM
 Niediam Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Michigan Posts: 823
Re: Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

Get PokerTrack and then play around with this link:

http://www.svenskpoker.com/math.php?hand...nCalc=calculate

1. No

2. Sure, but the standard for online poker is BB per 100 hands as opposed to BBs per hour or hourly rate.

3. Literally tens of thousands. You win rate though is probably worth atleast looking at once you hit 30k hands or so.

4. I don't know what the typical SD range is but yes you can theoretically move up with a smaller bankroll if its low.

5 &amp; 6. You definately will want to read Gambling Theory &amp; Other topics by Mason Malmuth.

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