Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-25-2005, 05:46 PM
d10 d10 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Ft Campbell, KY
Posts: 313
Default Interesting situation, check my math

I flop an OESD in live play and check it. It's checked around and the turn card is dealt, which completes my straight, but last to act says "I never checked." So according to the rules, the turn card is pulled to the side, flop action is completed, the river card is dealt as the turn, then the original turn card is shuffled back into the deck and another card is dealt. Obviously I was pissed off that my card was returned to the deck because some retard kept hiding his cards and wasn't paying attention, but I started to wonder how this would affect my odds. My odds on the turn are easy enough to figure out, they decrease slightly from 8/47 to 7/46, but the river is a bit more complicated. There are 25 cards left in the deck and I know at least one of them makes my hand, so I put my odds at (1/25)+(7/45)=44/225. So it seems that by the river my chances increase from the standard OESD of 31.45% to 33.25%, so the situation is actually better than if the last to act had been paying attention and protected his action. As the hand turned out, the original turn card came right back out on the river (good job dealer) and I won the pot, but the players and the dealer made comments suggesting that I was retarded for chasing knowing that one of my outs was missing on the turn.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-27-2005, 12:45 AM
Paul2432 Paul2432 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Bryn Mawr, PA USA
Posts: 374
Default Re: Interesting situation, check my math

I think you math is right. The comment of the other players and dealer is stupid. I presume you had sufficient pot odds even with one less out on the turn.

Paul
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-27-2005, 06:22 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Interesting situation, check my math

Your math is close. I assume there are ten players for 20 pocket cards, plus 4 on the board. Then there was a burn card before the flop and turn, plus another one before the second turn (the original river card). That gets us to 25 left in the deck. Is that right?

Given the 25 cards in the deck, there are two possibilities. 1/25 chance of getting the old turn card to complete your straight and 24/25 chance of not getting it, in which case you have 7 chances in 45, as you say, of completing your straight. So the correct computation is:

1/25 + (24/25)*(7/45) = 71/375 = 18.9%

not 44/225 or 19.6%. Your overall odds go down slightly from 31.45% to 31.27% (your numbers should give 31.80%, not 33.25%).
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:27 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.