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Old 12-22-2005, 04:42 PM
Rubber Soul Rubber Soul is offline
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Default Cold streak odds, is this possible???

Well I guess anything is possible, but has anyone gone through a streak (over 25,000 hands) where you have lost 80% of the hands (when the pot was over one full buy-in level in a nl cash game) when you were a 85% favorite or better post flop?? I have had 18 straight winning months at online nl cash games and I have not changed anything and I haven't tilted... Is this a once in a lifetime bad streak or is there any mathematical logic here???
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Old 12-22-2005, 04:51 PM
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Default Re: Cold streak odds, is this possible???

Well, I don't play all that many NL cash games anymore, but how many hands are we talking about here. There aren't that many hands that are more than 85% to win on the flop, so even over 25k hands you can't have gotten that many of them into big pots. Then in that case it's not that unlikely that you might have a really bad run where you are losing a lot more of them than you should. If you really haven't changed anything, keep playing the same way if it was working before. I'd really stop and examine your play though. You can't do anything about suckouts, but people often make bad runs worse than they need to be during these runs (frequently by either overbetting pots to prevent suckouts and not giving people the chance to make a smaller mistake against you, or by not betting enough because "I'm going to get sucked out on anyway").
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Old 12-22-2005, 05:01 PM
Rubber Soul Rubber Soul is offline
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Default Re: Cold streak odds, is this possible???

I should have said that the majority of these came post turn and thus the 85% figure...
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Old 12-22-2005, 06:25 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Default Re: Cold streak odds, is this possible???

Do you mean an 85% favorite against a random hand or an 85% favorite against the best hand the other player might hold?

Also, when did the pot get over one full buy-in? If it got high while you were an 85% favorite against any hand then this streak is much less likely that if it got big only after the other player hit one of his outs.

A specific example would help a lot so we could estimate the probability.
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Old 12-22-2005, 08:49 PM
Rubber Soul Rubber Soul is offline
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Default Re: Cold streak odds, is this possible???

An example would be me putting a guy all-in after the turn with me holding A-K and him holding A-Q on a board of A-2-7-10 rainbow... River comes a Q... Typical bad beat that happens to me and to probably all players four or five times a day... But in the last few weeks it has been happening about 20 times a day... I play four tables at a time for about 6 hours a day, four days a week... Two straight weeks of losing like this has made me wonder what the odds of this happening in a poker career... Seems like a once in a lifetime thing... At least I sure hope it is... The thing that hurts is that these are all huge pots... I can handle regular daily bad beats, but this is something different... Needless to say my bankroll is hurting... First time in my poker career I actually face going broke... My goal in poker was to never gamble my own money and up until now I have been winning month in and month out without ever having spent any of my own "away from poker" money... I just didn't think it was possible for a winning tight aggressive low limit nl player to EVER go broke online... Perhaps I just have to accept that I can have some losing months, as I guess a losing streak like this is not only possible but perhaps probable in a extended poker career...
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