Two Plus Two Older Archives odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings
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#1
10-19-2005, 07:46 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

I saw this question on a WPT broadcast.

(In hold em)

In a 6-handed game what are the odds of an opponent holding pocket Aces given you have pocket kings? I Think they said the answer was about 44 to 1.

Could someone explain how to figure the odds. I've tried it several ways I thought were correct but have come up with answers between 33 to 1 and 40 to 1 and have concluded I don't know how to solve this problem and/or I don't remember the answer given on the broadcast.
#2
10-19-2005, 08:14 PM
 LetYouDown Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity Posts: 524
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

This problem cannot be solved. Many have tried, all have failed.
#3
10-19-2005, 08:22 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

[ QUOTE ]
This problem cannot be solved. Many have tried, all have failed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Doesn't some math society or other have a \$100,000 prize for solving this problem? OP could make some money if he does manage to crack it.
#4
10-19-2005, 08:27 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

for 100,000 I'll work on this a little longer.
#5
10-19-2005, 10:43 PM
 tonypaladino Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: props to Stuey for fixing my avatar Posts: 498
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

The probability of someone being dealt AA is 1/220. It is 1/220 regardless of what you have (maybe slightly less given that 2 cards are known that are not A's)
#6
10-19-2005, 10:57 PM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

[ QUOTE ]
I saw this question on a WPT broadcast.

(In hold em)

In a 6-handed game what are the odds of an opponent holding pocket Aces given you have pocket kings? I Think they said the answer was about 44 to 1.

Could someone explain how to figure the odds. I've tried it several ways I thought were correct but have come up with answers between 33 to 1 and 40 to 1 and have concluded I don't know how to solve this problem and/or I don't remember the answer given on the broadcast.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to thank LetYouDown for fielding some of these so I don't always have to, but he let me down this time.

See this post, among many others.
#7
10-19-2005, 10:57 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

Of course, there's no answer to this problem. But if there were, it would look like this:

It's 1 in 40.833.

We get this answer from realizing there are 50 cards left in the deck. There are 4 aces in the deck. (4/50)*(3/49)*5 players remaining = 2.449% of the time, or one out of 40.833 times.

This is all theoretical of course. In real life questions like this don't have answers. Take your question, write it out in cursive and put it under your pillow and hope the statistics fairy leaves you a gleaming silver dollar in the morning.
#8
10-19-2005, 11:00 PM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

[ QUOTE ]
The probability of someone being dealt AA is 1/220. It is 1/220 regardless of what you have (maybe slightly less given that 2 cards are known that are not A's)

[/ QUOTE ]

When you hold KK, the probability of a particular opponent having AA increases to 6/C(50,2) = 6/1225 =~ 1/204.
#9
10-20-2005, 03:33 AM
 tonypaladino Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: props to Stuey for fixing my avatar Posts: 498
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The probability of someone being dealt AA is 1/220. It is 1/220 regardless of what you have (maybe slightly less given that 2 cards are known that are not A's)

[/ QUOTE ]

When you hold KK, the probability of a particular opponent having AA increases to 6/C(50,2) = 6/1225 =~ 1/204.

[/ QUOTE ]

i meant slightly more. whoops
#10
10-20-2005, 03:38 AM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: odds of opponent holding pocket Aces given you holdpocket Kings

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The probability of someone being dealt AA is 1/220. It is 1/220 regardless of what you have (maybe slightly less given that 2 cards are known that are not A's)

[/ QUOTE ]

When you hold KK, the probability of a particular opponent having AA increases to 6/C(50,2) = 6/1225 =~ 1/204.

[/ QUOTE ]

i meant slightly more. whoops

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, the probability of being dealt AA is 1/221, not 1/220. The odds are 220-1.

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