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  #21  
Old 12-18-2005, 12:50 PM
Peter-23 Peter-23 is offline
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Default Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn

I suppose you are right.

It was a freak occurrence, not that important and probably pointless to even post it. Maybe Iím wrong and my part of this post really does belong under the psychology section if on this forum at all. But psychology is part of the game, and tilt too right?

I have cooled down now and donít really want to share any hand histories so I prove your point and be on my way towards other threads.
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  #22  
Old 12-18-2005, 12:53 PM
Peter-23 Peter-23 is offline
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Default Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn

Thanks AaronBrown,

I appreciate people who can separate one thing from the other and does not necessarily assume preconceptions. Seems you know more than odds and probabilities.

Primarily I like to have an idea about the probabilities in this game but I do have a tilt problem and sometimes use probabilities to ease my mind as well.

Actually I have made one wacky claim but it was under ďbig tiltĒ and I believe I have taken that one back in this thread.
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  #23  
Old 12-19-2005, 10:58 AM
Skipbidder Skipbidder is offline
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Default Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn

I don't think you were estimating the probability of the question that OP actually asked.

What he was talking about was playing five hands in a row, flopping or turning the nuts with all five of them, and then eventually losing the hand on all five of them. This is significantly less likely than flopping a straight flush, I think. As you point out, this cannot be precisely calculated, because it requires knowledge about the likelihood of opponents calling along the way with hands that might need to come runner-runner to win. (It also obviously depends on whether OP was slowplaying any of these hands.) He already amended his claim by noting that he was multitabling at the time. This makes it more likely, but still considerably more improbable than you are suggesting. I think you are off by orders of magnitude here. In your earlier posts, you were discussing situations such as losing five hands in a row where you happened to flop or turn the nuts (but that didn't happen one after the other) or counting only hands that went to the showdown. That isn't what I understood OP to be asking about. (And his follow-up posts suggest that my view is closer to what OP was asking about.)

I think you are also underestimating the probability of a poster here exaggerating a story. I think that there is a natural tendency to spice up stories, and I think that this effect is stronger in poker players (who are used to bluffing anyway). I think that fishermen display the same tendencies. I couldn't honestly affirm that I've never exaggerated for effect when telling poker stories. Part of the issue is that nobody likes to hear about somebody else's bad beat story. You have to have enough of a zing to make it so it was worth listening to.

Surely I am entitled (or rather, compelled) to weigh the probability of an event happening vs. the probability that the person telling the story is mistaken or exaggerating.

I wasn't particularly nice to OP with my first response. I wish I had it to do over again. I'll be apologizing to him in the next post I make.

I'd be interested if you'd take another go at the problem with the following parameters:
1) Full table
2) Loose players
3) Five consecutive hands
4) Flop or turn the current nuts (AA preflop doesn't count as the nuts for this question)
5) Lose the hand in a showdown
6) Let's assume that OP slowplays flopped nuts (which makes it possible for some of the obscure runner-runners to come in)
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  #24  
Old 12-19-2005, 11:06 AM
Skipbidder Skipbidder is offline
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Default Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn

Sorry I was a jerk in my first reply.

I see that you post questions in the micro-limit forums. I'd still be interested in seeing the hand histories. $50 should make it worth your time, eh? I'll relax the criteria a little bit, since you subsequently indicated that they weren't actually 5 hands in a row, since you were multitabling. If you can provide hand histories that show five hands at one site within a 15 minute time period that correspond to the hands you described (which were the nuts at either the flop or turn and still lost at showdown), I'll transfer $50 to you on a site we share. (Most of my money is on Pokerstars, but I've got accounts at at least 15 other sites.)
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  #25  
Old 12-21-2005, 11:53 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Default Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be interested if you'd take another go at the problem with the following parameters:
1) Full table
2) Loose players
3) Five consecutive hands
4) Flop or turn the current nuts (AA preflop doesn't count as the nuts for this question)
5) Lose the hand in a showdown
6) Let's assume that OP slowplays flopped nuts (which makes it possible for some of the obscure runner-runners to come in)

[/ QUOTE ]
That's far less likely for two reasons. The first, as you point out, is doing it five hands in a row. You rarely flop the nuts. I don't know the exact figure, but it would reduce the probability by a factor of 1,000 or more. The other reason is you're getting called a lot more between the loose players and the slowplay assumption. Most of the time you flop the nuts you don't get to showdown unless someone has a chance of beating you.

Ballpark I'd say this reduces the odds by a factor of 10,000 to 100,000.
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  #26  
Old 12-22-2005, 12:20 PM
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Default Re: Five nut hands in a row out drawn

The problem with these kind of odds questions are that they're asked after it happened.

If you want to ask the real question, then you should ask: If I play poker for 100 hours, what are the odds that something really weird will happen that will make me wonder what the odds of that happening are.

I'd guess that the answer to that is a fairly high percentage.
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