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  #1  
Old 10-27-2005, 02:06 AM
HighStakesPro HighStakesPro is offline
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Default 1/2 PokerStars

MP1 is typical 1/2 fish. I observed some hands he played and had made the following notes before this hand occurred:

Moron who only limps preflop, doesn't even reraise with KK, then raises on the turn AJ6A and is lucky that the preflop 3-bettor had QQ
Bets into a preflop raiser from out of position with just ace high, continued the bluff through the river and was called down.
raised preflop, probably with just high cards
limped in with 99 and made no bets on A25 flop,

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (14 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, SB folds
Final Pot: 14 BB

So it looks like he has AK, based on his check on the flop and his bet on the river after calling on the flop and cold-calling a bet and checkraise on the turn. Of course, I am also beaten by AQ, any other random king, or any pocket pair tens or higher, or by 98. Plus, there is the small blind, who has checked but could still have me beat. I showed this hand to a friend who insisted that it was a terrible fold, so I am posting the hand here to get the opinion of others. I know, it's a $27 pot and it costs just $2 to call, but the betting sequence made AK seem like such a likely hand, and the probability of him bluffing in that situation was very slim if not zero, so I folded.
After the SB folded I announced my hand and the SB said he had AT, the other player's hand remains unknown. What would you do?

P.S. I posted this also in the Small Stakes forum, and the first two responses were that I should fold preflop, one of them citing my note about him limping with KK. However, this indicates that he would probably play AA the same way, and maybe even QQ, which suggests that a raise represents high cards. It may be correct for me to fold preflop anyway, although I am in good position, but the point of the post and the question I have posed relates to the play on the river, not my starting hand requirements.
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  #2  
Old 10-27-2005, 02:14 AM
jason_t jason_t is offline
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

Fold preflop.
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  #3  
Old 10-27-2005, 02:26 AM
bottomset bottomset is offline
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

fold preflop

don't announce what you had

he's bluffed Ahi to the river right? he isn't good, he might think he can rep a K here, 15/1 is a good price
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  #4  
Old 10-27-2005, 02:53 AM
jakbse jakbse is offline
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

I would make a crying call everytime, not even realizing that he probably held AK.
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  #5  
Old 10-27-2005, 05:07 AM
detruncate detruncate is offline
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

Hi HighStakesPro.

If Villain raises as infrequently as you suggest it's an easy fold pf. Even if he limps all his PPs you're still going to be dominated way too often. If your hand isn't strong enough to 3-bet in a situation like this (and it isn't) you should almost always fold.

The river fold is very bad -- you only need to make a correct call 1 time in 15 for it to be neutral EV, and you seem to be up against someone fully capable of betting a worse hand.
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  #6  
Old 10-27-2005, 06:43 AM
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

I'm not going to say anything other than: it's obviously bugging you - it's worth the call.

EDITED for everyone's benefit.
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  #7  
Old 10-27-2005, 06:46 AM
jason_t jason_t is offline
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to say anything other than: it's obviously bugging you - it's worth the $2 call.

[/ QUOTE ]

We make decisions in terms of size of the pot relative to the bet size; not in terms of actual dollar value.
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  #8  
Old 10-27-2005, 08:01 AM
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

*Grunch*

For 1bb I'd have called. You only have to beat him 7% of the time.

Admittedly it looks bleak, esp with the PFR. Any K, AA ,QQ ,JJ, TT even 22 will beat you, but judging by his history he doesn't play predictably, so you cannot take it for granted he beats you 2 pair.
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  #9  
Old 10-27-2005, 08:41 AM
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

This could be a case of a result (SB's fold on the river) influencing the analyses. I think a better post for the river might be:

River: (14 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, Hero ?

To continue that thought there is a case for a fold here given that we have to fear a check raise from SB. You are thinking about this hand after it is finished so maybe you forgot you had this particular fear when you acted??

Heads-up against "Moron" this a no-brainer crying call. With SB still to act I think it is a bit more complicated because of the threat of a check raise from a "thinking player". &lt;&lt;BTW - did you have any kind of a read on SB?&gt;&gt; If you are sure that SB will fold or just call then calling is the correct move here. If you are worried about a raise behind you it does change the situation especially since "Moron" could raise again and you will be faced with having to call 2 (or even 3) more. If you call and SB does raise your chance of winning goes to about zero and you should fold.

Exploring the differences between fold and call/fold we have to consider the probability that SB will raise. Considering the hand possiblities (including AT) that MP1 could have, and using PokerStove, I figure you have about 15% pot equity heads-up and nearly zero equity three-way (if SB is calling with a legitimate hand).

If you fold and SB folds you have a theoretical loss of about -2.10BB. Calling with the same situation will net +1.25BB in the long run for a net gain of +3.35BB by calling. If you fold and the SB raises you have lost nothing and if you call and SB raises you will have made a -1.00BB mistake (more if you continue calling [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]) for a net loss of -1.00BB by calling. So in this case if you judge there is a better than 3.35:1 chance that SB will raise then the correct action is to fold. Forget about what he actually did and don't let that influence future decision making (after all there is a reason for the 1 in 3.35:1).

But then again I am a hopeless newbie and probably totally off base. I even thought the raise preflop was fine and would have done the same.

Edited to use BBs instead of $ because this is $1/$2 instead of $.50/$1 where I play and $1 = 1BB. I did say I was a hopeless newbie [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I wish I was good enough to play $1/$2 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].
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  #10  
Old 10-27-2005, 09:28 AM
J.Copperthite J.Copperthite is offline
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Default Re: 1/2 PokerStars

This is a case of acting on your read - you figured he made a weak call on the flop w/ a gutshot w/ A-K and since this is the hand you believe he has, you fold on the river to save a bet. I'm all for acting on your reads - thats how you play the player - but in that spot the pot is just so large and you beat the majority of the hands he could have - he could have even called the flop bet w/ a hand as weak as A-9. My read on the SB was KQ when he checkraised, but since you threebet and he just flat called, I would immediately denounce that read and either have him on A-T or even A-J. If MP1 is as fishy as you say, he may even have something like Q-T, etc. Point is that even if you read him for the nuts, you must call getting 14 to 1 on your call. It is unlikely the SB will checkraise since he now checks the river - a checkraiser in micro-limits will almost always lead at the river if he still believes he has the best hand - his check tells me he is just as scared of the queen, so don't fear the checkraise. Hope this helps.
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