Party 30/60: Fancy Play Syndrome?

Jeff W · #1 12-02-2005, 11:30 PM

River bettor is a nut--52/28/.9 over 300 hands.

The other two players are typical loose-bad players who would overcall a pair, but probably won't call 2 bets.

I'm not at all sure my play is right even in a pot this size.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Jeff is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, Jeff 3-bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Jeff checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets, Button calls, Jeff calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Jeff checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Button checks.

River: (8.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Jeff checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets, Button folds, Jeff raises.

steveyz · #2 12-03-2005, 04:20 AM

definite FPS. Bet the flop. On the river MP1 isn't folding a better hand, and it's very unlikely UTG has anything. What pair hand do you think UTG is likely to have played here that makes you so eager to move him off it?

Jeff W · #3 12-03-2005, 05:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
definite FPS. Bet the flop. On the river MP1 isn't folding a better hand, and it's very unlikely UTG has anything. What pair hand do you think UTG is likely to have played here that makes you so eager to move him off it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely missed a flop bet. I realized that after the hand.

On the river, I think it is likely that UTG has nothing and I think it is also likely that MP1 has nothing. However, UTG is a loose player and could have picked up a pair at some point and checked it down because of the scary board.

Assuming calling is correct, then I need to satisfy the following parlay to make a check-raise correct:

[/ QUOTE ]
P(A)*P(B)=1/10.25=.098~.1 where P(A)=Probability that MP1 has a worse hand and P(B)=Probability that UTG has and folds a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thus, if MP1 has a worse hand 1/2 the time, then I only need UTG to fold a better hand 1/5 times for a checkraise to be successful. These are arbitrary values, but they provide a baseline for thinking about how often I need to succeed for the checkraise to be correct in a pot this size.

Please inform me if my math is faulty.

Baulucky · #4 12-03-2005, 09:54 AM

If you don't bet this flop you gotta fold this flop.

gaming_mouse · #5 12-03-2005, 01:38 PM

Jeff,

If you bet this flop and the nut raises you, as he very often will, how do you proceed when you miss the turn, as you very often will?

chio · #6 12-03-2005, 01:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
definite FPS. Bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would check this flop a majority of the time, you are OOP vs 3 loose opponents with ace high and no draws (not even any backdoor draws). you are taking down this flop 0% of the time with a bet, and you hate getting raised. check and see the action, you can definitely call one bet back to you.