Why doesn't he fear that card?

[PygmyHero]

What I'm referring to is when you get donked on the turn (or river, but it happens more on the turn I think) when a big card comes off. It is extra confusing if you were the PF aggressor (making it more likely that your opponent should fear that you just paired), and the flop action indicated your foe hit the flop.

This hand is from a short handed table, but it illustrates a poker concept that's applicable to full ring as well.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>...

PF: I'm going to raise because I'm in position and have generally been outplaying and taking pots away from the SB, especially HU. My PF play here against this particular player was pretty much standard.

Flop: I actually get a pretty nice flop for my hand - I clearly bet when he checks, but I think the value of the hand here is that he may think I have UI overs, in which case he may call down with a 7. But he check raises? So he liked the flop - maybe he also has a ten.

Turn: Now the turn is an ace and he bets? If he only had a ten, he would fear the ace. Especially since I was the PF raiser. Yet he bets right into it. Why? In my mind there are three possibilities:

1) There is a small chance that he bluff check raised the flop and is following through on the turn. I think this chance is very small, especially with the A on the turn. I also don't believe this player to be capable of bluffing a player showing strength (more generally, I don't think that your typical LL opponenet is capable of such an aggressive play).

2) There is some chance he has an ace, cr-ed the flop thinking I missed, and now naturally leads when he spikes TP. Here's the problem with that line of thought: in order for him to only complete from the SB HU with Ax, I must believe he is a weak player (note I'm saying a weak player, not a player with a weak hand), BUT, in order to check raise the flop when you miss with an ace, I think you must be a strong player (again, strong player, not a player with a strong hand). So we have a paradox - I can't reconcile his PF and flop actions because I think he's a weak player through and through. And again, this is what I think of most LL players. Therefore I do not think there is much chance that my opponent has Ax in this situation.

3) Since I do not think either of the above two explanations very likely, that leaves me with only one conclusion: he does not fear the ace. There are only two reasons not to fear the ace (or an overcard in general): it improves your hand, or it doesn't really hurt your hand.

I discussed the possibility that it helped his hand in 2, and again, I don't think that's what is occurring here.

But how does it not hurt his hand? If I make aces on the turn and his hand is still ahead of it, then the ace doesn't hurt him too much. It's pretty easy to see that on this board only two pair and a set are ahead of aces. If my hand improved to aces, I may have some outs against him now, but he's still way way ahead. Also, this is at least partially offset by the fact that making aces may cause me to call down (that is, pay off). You could even argue that he should go for another check raise if he thinks I have an ace.

So I put him on a set or two pair. I am drawing dead against a set. Against two pair (that is, a flopped two pair), I have 6-9 outs, depending on his exact hand.

So is the turn a call or not? I think it's close, but I lean towards calling. I expect to collect at least one extra big bet if I hit the river, but probably two since I expect him to bet any river (though I could also lose two if he has a set - I will not call a 3 bet). And of course there is always a small chance he checks the river, is completely bluffing, etc.

I called the turn and folded the river UI (the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

Fortunately, he opted to show...T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a flopped two pair.

Here's my summary:
Why does't he fear that big card?
Because he can still beat TP.

CAVEAT: of course, at higher limits, against tricky players, or perpetual bluffs, you can throw all this out the winder. These are simply my thoughts on playing against your average, horrible LL player.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does't he fear that big card?
Because he can still beat TP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alternatively, because he doesn't think you have one. If you've been raising every time you're HU with the guy he has no reason to either.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
CAVEAT: of course, at higher limits, against tricky players, or perpetual bluffs, you can throw all this out the winder. These are simply my thoughts on playing against your average, horrible LL player.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with all this (was going to start out with "tl;dr", then realized that "tl;riabib (too long; read it anyway because I'm bored)" was more accurate) is that in the sample hand you posted your Villan isn't a "horrible LL player." He's obviously good enough to know what to do when he flops a good, not great hand, and he beat you over the head with it. The more important question, to me, is why didn't YOU fear the turn ace? Especially after the c/r on the flop, your play on that flop is a clear fold in a smallish pot.

[J. Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
I also don't believe this player to be capable of bluffing a player showing strength

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice nice post. I really love it when people post how they think of the hand and not just "comments?". This is much better for all of us since me as a reader gets to see how other people think in a situation like this compared to my own, and people will respond better to your post and comment if they think any of your thinking don't make any sense. Really nice post. Keep it up.

As for the hand itself.

I am 99% sure he don't have an ace and since he check raised you on the river, he either has two pair or top pair (which makes me think you are ahead since J10, Q10, K10 and A10 make me believe he would raise preflop, but who knows, I don't know villain). I like your call behind since can re-think on the turn but I would be tempted to throw in a 3-bet to see if Villain thinks I'm making a bet with air since I was the PFR. But a call is good.

The Ace don't scare him so I am likely behind. Two pair? Could he check/raise with A high? Nah. But I think we are likely behind here and the pot ain't that big, I fold to his bet on the turn.

I know you know the answer to this question.

You told me about 8 different ways in the OP.

[Fantam]

I would have 3-bet the flop to see how much he really liked his hand, because your top pair was very strong HU.

HU play is tricky, and I think sometimes you need to call down to get a read on an opponent. Otherwise you can let them walk all over you.