big draw, totally lost

[schwza]

well, this is about what i was hoping for when i limped. now what's the plan?

from the super thursday, no reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (10 handed) converter

UTG (t1125)
UTG+1 (t775)
UTG+2 (t1080)
MP1 (t855)
MP2 (t760)
MP3 (t1160)
Hero (t855)
Button (t1030)
SB (t4070)
BB (t725)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t20, UTG+1 calls t20, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t100) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t20</font>, BB calls t20, UTG calls t20, UTG+1 calls t20, hero ?

[11t]

I'd say raise it to 80 and try to pull the old limit "free card" trick while disguising what your hand really is. The SB min-betting here could represent a huge array of hands or just be some bizarre attempt to buy the pot from the blinds.

Anyways if I raise it here and there are only 1-2 callers I bet the turn (assuming it is checked to me) whether or not I hit my draw and if they all come with I check it the turn to see the river.

[durron597]

I would move in. The pot is about 20% of your stack, and you're not a big dog to anything, as long as you get at most one caller.

[theghost]

how bad is calling, getting those odds?

making some kind of move is a good way to lose a good chunk of your stack against 4 opponents if someone plays back at you...call the 20 to close the action looks to me like a good option.

(edit: not to mention more customers when you hit your draw)

[Potowame]

other things to keep in mind, noone else has really shown any major strength. So really you will mainly only have to worry about the original better, because I cant see a hand Like 1010 just calling a mini bet and letting the whole table see the turn.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I would move in. The pot is about 20% of your stack, and you're not a big dog to anything, as long as you get at most one caller.

[/ QUOTE ]

moving in is pretty clearly +EV (relative to folding), but is it the most +EV?

[DireWolf]

I would raise to 100 here. I would bet the turn as well though.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
moving is pretty clearly +EV (relative to folding), but is it the most +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. The thing about small pair + flush draw (+gutshot) hands is that your hand is pretty solid against any single hand, but not against multiple types of different hands.

For example:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1048262
pokenum -h 6s 4s - as 9s - ah 7d -- 7s 6d 3s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 7s 3s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 4s 251 27.80 643 71.21 9 1.00 0.281
As 9s 321 35.55 573 63.46 9 1.00 0.359
7d Ah 322 35.66 572 63.34 9 1.00 0.360

You are clearly the dog here. But if either of those opponents fold:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1048263
pokenum -h 6s 4s - as 9s -- 7s 6d 3s / ah 7d
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 7s 3s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 4s 520 57.59 374 41.42 9 1.00 0.581
As 9s 374 41.42 520 57.59 9 1.00 0.419

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1048264
pokenum -h 6s 4s - - ah 7d -- 7s 6d 3s / as 9s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 7s 3s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 4s 491 54.37 403 44.63 9 1.00 0.549
7d Ah 403 44.63 491 54.37 9 1.00 0.451

So even knowing that your flush cards are dead, you are still the favorite against either of these hands, but not both. Thus you don't want this pot to stay multiway - thus pushing is your best bet. Hope you get at most one caller.

[Potowame]

I cant see being called by a worse hand if you hit your flush or str8.

Pushing here is going to get a made hand that you have a very good chance of betting with two cards to come calling , and hands like J10 of spades to fold (hopefully).

[transmitt]

I think your flush outs may be dead here to the nut A-something spades the way the hand played out. Too many people limping along. I'm not looking for monsters under the bed, but w/ 4 people limping along, I'm not sure I push. If there were 2 people, maybe I push and expect at worst a set, at best an Ax low pair.