Noble 100 million shits and giggles

[godofgamblers]

I read this promotion, basically if you get a Royal Flush during the final table, you get 100 million, and something like a million for 4 Aces or Kings and 250k for quads better than 10's....and it seems mathematically to be a horrible decision (for Noble). They probably rigged it or have such strict rules it won't happen, but for fun lets calculate.

Odds of a Royal flush are approx 1:40000 in Hold'Em. FT's for such large events typically last 5-10 hours, and its not illogical to assume around 10 hands per hour are shown to the river, especially considering this promotion is running. So there is a 50:40000/100:40000 or 1:800/1:400 chance of hitting a RF for 100,000,000. So everytime they run this promotion, they lose on average 125k-250k. It is a 10k + 750 Event, so they have to attract 170-340 people to break even. Doesn't seem that appealing when they could go broke entirely if somebody gets lucky...

Also, it seems that in heads up play, they could check fold to each other all day long until one of them hits. It is a live event, so presumably the finalists can decide on this strategy beforehand with each other. As long as they put in a good acting job, it might be possible to do so :P. For 100 million, I'd act my ass off until I got a warning.