Super Thursday Bubble Decision - Page 4

sxz18 · #31 05-07-2005, 01:22 AM

Without any read on Button, I think folding AQ is fine because he has the same stack as you. He knows he can fold to the money easily with the two short stacks going bust soon enough. I honestly think he will only raise with strong hands here because he doesn't have a big stack and he knows about the bubble as well.

MLG · #32 05-07-2005, 01:30 AM

knowing about the bubble is reason to raise, and will make the button raise more hands, not less. you are making the classic mistake of assuming that everybody plays the same way you do. you are interested in simply folding into the money, so you assume that the button is. that is a bad assumption. folding AQ, as is shown numerous times in this thread is a bad play, and its not ok to fold here if you are trying to make as much money as possible. cferejohn said it best when he said that if you (edit: not specifically you, but you in the general anybody who is reading this sense) can't consistently bring yourself to make this play you probably don't have the make-up to do well in big MTTs.

A_PLUS · #33 05-07-2005, 02:19 AM

This made me remember a hand I questioned how to play a while back in a PP 100$ MTT.

Level 1: I am SB, same situation, folded to button,only Button made it 75, I had AQ suited.

Now, I was never going to fold the hand, just wondering what the best play is here, obviously no read yet. reraise the pot, stop and go, etc?

durron597 · #34 05-07-2005, 02:38 AM

I'm actually surprised no one has pointed this out yet; Party has a very steep cashing payout structure. In other words the payout from 71st to 70th is a pay increase about the same as from 70th all the way up into the 30s. Actually I'm surprised Che wasn't the one who mentioned this because he was the person who first pointed it out to me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

However, I still think that pushing is still probably right, but the payout structure makes it a lot closer than most everyone here is saying.

MLG · #35 05-07-2005, 02:39 AM

its an interesting spot with lots of options, but obviously a very different situation. A thread talking about how to play pretty good hands out of the blinds when the blinds are small might be interesting (although there are certainly no definitive answers). On stars I generally raise, on party the shorter stacks make it trickier and I'm more inclined to call.

cferejohn · #36 05-07-2005, 04:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm actually surprised no one has pointed this out yet; Party has a very steep cashing payout structure. In other words the payout from 71st to 70th is a pay increase about the same as from 70th all the way up into the 30s. Actually I'm surprised Che wasn't the one who mentioned this because he was the person who first pointed it out to me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

However, I still think that pushing is still probably right, but the payout structure makes it a lot closer than most everyone here is saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not quite sure I agree. I think Party's payouts are pretty flat until you get to the last 6 places or so. 70th-61st was like $300, 60th-51st was like $360. You keep on having fairly small jumps all the way to 10th, when it's around 1K, and by first it's 22.5K. To me, that all adds up to "take risks to get to the final table, even if it means going out on the bubble a few times".

cferejohn · #37 05-07-2005, 04:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Without any read on Button, I think folding AQ is fine because he has the same stack as you. He knows he can fold to the money easily with the two short stacks going bust soon enough. I honestly think he will only raise with strong hands here because he doesn't have a big stack and he knows about the bubble as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but he easily has enough chips to raise and fold to a reraise, and given that it is the bubble *and* there are two *really* small stacks at this table, I don't see why I should put him on a big hand at all.

Actually, that begs an interesting question, if you are the button and it is folded to you here, what do you do? I raise any two cards to ~2200 without hesitation unless there's a big stack in one of the blinds who had been constantly re-raising once close to the bubble.

cferejohn · #38 05-07-2005, 05:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This made me remember a hand I questioned how to play a while back in a PP 100$ MTT.

Level 1: I am SB, same situation, folded to button,only Button made it 75, I had AQ suited.

Now, I was never going to fold the hand, just wondering what the best play is here, obviously no read yet. reraise the pot, stop and go, etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is obviously different because the stacks are much larger (relative to the blinds) and you are not anywhere near the bubble. I agree you can't really fold here.

I'd call and bet out ~2/3 of the pot on any board that seems unthreatening (or that hits you). On a ten high raggy board, I'm betting out. On KJ4, I'm probably check-folding if he makes a real bet (obviously he could make a bet small enough to get me to call for the gutshot broadway draw).

Che · #39 05-07-2005, 10:55 AM

durron-

[ QUOTE ]
*The party bubble is a prime example of the divergence of CEV and $EV so I wouldn't call if the CEV was +72 or something like that, but this situation isn't close.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement was my attempt at what you're saying I neglected to mention. To be more specific, the nature of the Party bubble is such that folding in to the bubble *occasionally* makes sense since the jump from one out to one in is much bigger than at most sites. However, this hand is not close so the bubble factor isn't relevant - even at Party.

At Stars, I will take a slightly +EV play on the bubble (or even a flip at times), but at Party I want a little more since such a large part of my $EV is captured by just getting across the bubble.

Later,
Che