Super Thursday Bubble Decision

[freekobe]

No offense taken. But, if you have 5 minutes, seeing the math behind a decision like this would be helpful.

[TheDrone]

Yeah, what you said. Serves me right for posting slowly. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Sluss]

Although I don't have the math, think about the range that calls. AA, KK, QQ, and AK, maybe AQ. How often are you dealt these hands? Plus the OP has an A and Q in his hand lowering the chance of three of those four hands.

If you are concerned on the bubble about busting you are probably playing over your head. If you have the bankroll to buy into a 100 tourney then winning 100 should be nothing to you.

[sdplayerb]

i push.
he has to be tighter also here due to the bubble. i don't see him calling with a bad pair for a coinflip.
depends if he has been agg or not also.
but i'm pushing here against the button.

[freekobe]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I don't have the math, think about the range that calls. AA, KK, QQ, and AK, maybe AQ. How often are you dealt these hands? Plus the OP has an A and Q in his hand lowering the chance of three of those four hands.

If you are concerned on the bubble about busting you are probably playing over your head. If you have the bankroll to buy into a 100 tourney then winning 100 should be nothing to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your underestimate the range that calls you.

[AACardPlayer]

Just some food for thought. I was playing in a $30 multi at PP yesterday, one spot away from the bubble. shortstack who had about twice the BB pushed in MP with QQ. He couldve folded and posted his blinds and safely made it into the money but instead he decided to put his tourney on the line right there knowing he would get called. Long story short, he doubled up, ended up getting 3rd in the tourney, netting like $1000. If you play to win, you play to win.

[freekobe]

[ QUOTE ]
Just some food for thought. I was playing in a $30 multi at PP yesterday, one spot away from the bubble. shortstack who had about twice the BB pushed in MP with QQ. He couldve folded and posted his blinds and safely made it into the money but instead he decided to put his tourney on the line right there knowing he would get called. Long story short, he doubled up, ended up getting 3rd in the tourney, netting like $1000. If you play to win, you play to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think these situations are remotely close. Without taking advantage of that double-up opportunity with QQ, that player is likely doomed.

In THIS case, our player has an above average stack and can afford to wait (maybe not that long, but he can wait).

Again, I'm not saying folding is necessarily "correct," but I haven't seen the math to disprove that (and I know there is math that can say yes or no, if we have the correct payout structure).

[Sluss]

Remember calling and pushing are two different things. If he wants to cripple himself by calling with a weaker holding I'm fine with that. I can't see that happening here.

[bruce]

Don't be results oriented. Too easy to be an armchair quarterback.

Bruce

[Ian J]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Although I don't have the math, think about the range that calls. AA, KK, QQ, and AK, maybe AQ. How often are you dealt these hands? Plus the OP has an A and Q in his hand lowering the chance of three of those four hands.

If you are concerned on the bubble about busting you are probably playing over your head. If you have the bankroll to buy into a 100 tourney then winning 100 should be nothing to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your underestimate the range that calls you.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. This isn't some $10 tournament. Do you really think some guy with plenty of chips is going to call almost all of them off on the bubble of a fairly large tourney w/ 99 or TT. I doubt it. I think JJ is close.

FWIW I am surprised to see he called w/ the AK, considering many tournament players enormous and unfounded fear of the "almighty" bubble.

Cfer, obviously it's tough to not be results oriented, but that's all this is. NH sir.