Super Thursday Bubble Decision

cferejohn · #1 05-06-2005, 04:20 PM

So, super thursday last night. 71 people remaining. 70 Pay. Blinds 400/800. I just had AA in the BB and got all in with someone to double up to about 10.5K. There are 2 players at the table who have about 100 (not a typo) chips left; the closest to the blinds still has about 5 hands to go before he has to take them.

So, 10.5K, blinds 400/800. I'm dealt AQo in the SB. Folded to the button, who barely covers me (a couple hundred chips or so). Button raises to 2500. What do I do?

Fwiw, 70th place pays ~$300. 10th is ~1K, 1st is ~22.5K.

MLG · #2 05-06-2005, 04:22 PM

I can't imagine not pushing here. good to see you're alive.

cferejohn · #3 05-06-2005, 04:31 PM

I thought for a little bit, just to make sure (one thing I learned from Harrington's book: even if you are pretty sure you have an easy decision, it never hurts to stop and think for a minute before pushing or calling all-in), then I pushed. He called with AK and won.

There was, of course, plenty of rail-bird squawking about what a mistake it was, but I don't think it was a hard decision at all. *Maybe* an EP raise from a player I think is very tight can get me to lay this down.

Frankly, in the button's position I would have raised just about any 2 cards here with 2 extremely small stacks ready to bust out (BB had about 5K, fwiw). Even if he was a little tighter than that, he's raising all sorts of hands I am creaming here.

Anyway, I'm just curious to see if any self-respecting 2+2er is going to recommend folding (or calling, which I suppose I like better than folding, but I still think it is inferior to pushing).

Fwiw, a stop-n-go would have done no good: K on the flop (and another on the turn, just for good measure)...

freekobe · #4 05-06-2005, 04:49 PM

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I can't imagine not pushing here. good to see you're alive.

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Maybe there is math behind this that can make me understand this answer, but...

I cannot see how with 1 to til the bubble bursts, pushing is the best option here. Guaranteeing a double of your money by folding is certainly worth something here, isn't it?

Figure there are probably four hands that call here and have you in big trouble (AK, AA, KK, and QQ). Also possible someone on party poker calls you with JJ and 10 10. I can't see how pushing and busting (you tell me the odds of this) can be a better option than not risking your tournament life and folding for 400 chips.

Then, throw in the table dynamic (two people with 100 CHIPS), and to me, this has got to be an easy fold.

We can go into "what's your goal - moneying or winning," but I don't think that's relevant here. Will the 3300 chips help down the road? Of course. But, and perhaps this is where the math is relevant, what about working for 3 hours to come in 71st and have nothing to show without any kind of read on the button raise? You will have better spots to get your money in. That's a virtual guarantee. Even a random blind steal can net you 1200 chips.

I have not had as much success as MLG (though I don't play nearly as many tournaments), but to me, this is frighteningly easy to throw away).

MLG · #5 05-06-2005, 04:57 PM

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We can go into "what's your goal - moneying or winning," but I don't think that's relevant here.

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of course this is extremely relevant. you are giving up some equity now (i dont think you are denying that generally pushing in this situation is generally +EV) in order to ensure you make the money. Thats an example if playing to increase your ITM% instead of to maximize your return. Making plays like that will make it very tough to get to the final table which is what you need to do to be a profitable MTT player.

DireWolf · #6 05-06-2005, 04:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]

We can go into "what's your goal - moneying or winning," but I don't think that's relevant here. Will the 3300 chips help down the road? Of course. But, and perhaps this is where the math is relevant, what about working for 3 hours to come in 71st and have nothing to show without any kind of read on the button raise? You will have better spots to get your money in. That's a virtual guarantee. Even a random blind steal can net you 1200 chips.

I have not had as much success as MLG (though I don't play nearly as many tournaments), but to me, this is frighteningly easy to throw away).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you will still have 3100 chips, but will you ever be in the position of having AQ against a button raise again? unlikely.

freekobe · #7 05-06-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

We can go into "what's your goal - moneying or winning," but I don't think that's relevant here. Will the 3300 chips help down the road? Of course. But, and perhaps this is where the math is relevant, what about working for 3 hours to come in 71st and have nothing to show without any kind of read on the button raise? You will have better spots to get your money in. That's a virtual guarantee. Even a random blind steal can net you 1200 chips.

I have not had as much success as MLG (though I don't play nearly as many tournaments), but to me, this is frighteningly easy to throw away).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you will still have 3100 chips, but will you ever be in the position of having AQ against a button raise again? unlikely.

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Wait a second....OP had 10.5K in chips, a pretty good-sized stack in relation to the blinds. He was in no danger. He was definitely not in push mode, nor did he have to steal, nor did he have to take advantage of this opportunity.

My thinking in this: there are WAY too many variables here to make pushing in this situation +EV.

1. Two people with 100 chips left. > 95% that one of them busts in the next 5-7 hands.
2. No real read on the button. Could have a wide range of hands.
3. Because this is party poker and not a table of professional players, button is likely to call with a slightly wider range than we might expect (i.e. KJs, middle pocket pair).

I'm not math-savvy enough to figure out the odds of him folding, the odds of us doubling when he calls, or the odds of us folding and being successful down the road, but...

I've got to believe that with 1 player til the bubble bursts and opportunties left to gobble up small stacks (the field goes nuts when the bubble bursts), pushing here, under these circumstances is not +EV.

Che · #8 05-06-2005, 05:30 PM

freekobe-

I would like to point out a few flaws in your reasoning to help you better evaluate these situations. Do not take this as a personal attack because that is not my intent.

I would be happy to elaborate on any of my comments if needed. I would be ecstatic if someone could point out an error that I have made so that I can eliminate that error and improve myself. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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Guaranteeing a double of your money by folding is certainly worth something here, isn't it?

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Yes, but that's the wrong question. The question is: is it worth more than the other alternatives?

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I can't see how pushing and busting (you tell me the odds of this) can be a better option than not risking your tournament life and folding for 400 chips.

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Pushing and busting is obviously a terrible option. However, pushing does not guarantee busting. You have to value the weighted average value of pushing versus the value of folding. And, you'll have to calculate the odds yourself according to your read on the button.

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what about working for 3 hours to come in 71st and have nothing to show

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The time already invested is sunk cost. It is irrelevant to your current (and future) decisions.

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You will have better spots to get your money in. That's a virtual guarantee.

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Situations better than AQ against a basically random hand with bubble folding equity are pretty rare IMHO.

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Even a random blind steal can net you 1200 chips.

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Yes, but it can also cost you ~2000 when you get reraised off your steal. Like your "pushing and busting" comment earlier, you're not comparing apples to apples.

The bottom line: Your conclusion (i.e. fold) may be correct, but your arguments for folding have serious flaws IMHO.

Later,
Che

TheDrone · #9 05-06-2005, 05:38 PM

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what about working for 3 hours to come in 71st and have nothing to show without any kind of read on the button raise?

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Two things wrong with this statement:
(1) 3 hours is a sunk cost. See Econ 101.
(2) He does have a read on the button raise, but it just so happens that the raiser's hand was at the top end of the range.

freekobe · #10 05-06-2005, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what about working for 3 hours to come in 71st and have nothing to show without any kind of read on the button raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Two things wrong with this statement:
(1) 3 hours is a sunk cost. See Econ 101.
(2) He does have a read on the button raise, but it just so happens that the raiser's hand was at the top end of the range.

[/ QUOTE ]

(1) Man, I hate people who are *ssholes, particularly when they're an *sshole for no reason. Good lord.

(2) Fine, you want to argue semantics...he has no "real" read on the button. You always have a "read" on someone's hand - 2/7 through AA.

If you're a math genius, do the math for me on pushing v. folding here as far as EV goes. I'm willing to be convinced (unlike most people on these boards), but I want to see some evidence. I am not good enough at this stuff to do it, or else I would. I'm eyeballing this situation and it doesn't seem to me to be a clear decision as others suggest. In fact, it seems to be quite the opposite. Some math would go a long way toward convincing me.