Flopping top pair from the SB

[cferejohn]

A hand from tonight's Stars $150+12 that I thought was interesting.

I'm in the SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Blinds 300/600 a50. Full table (9 players).

Player who I had noted as weak-tight (T8800) (he had fairly often folded his SB after several limpers when the blinds were still quite low, and every hand he'd shown down had been good) open limps from CO-2. I complete (T13,500). BB checks. Pot is 2250.

Flop is 3 6 T with 2 diamonds. I bet 1500. BB folds. Limper calls.

Turn is 7 giving me a gutshot to go with my top pair. I bet 2K. Limper raises 2800 to 4800 total (leaving him with less than 2000 back).

What do you do?

[arcticfox]

If you read him as weak tight and he has called a flop bet and reraised you on the turn the worst I put him on is a ten with a higher kicker. Your best case is he is bluffing with a missed flush draw but that doesn't sound weak tight to me. I fold.

[durron597]

Looks like a set to me. Tough spot.

[woodguy]

So he's giving you 6-1 on the call.

Since he's commited if you hit best hand you are getting the rest of his stack, so we can increase the odds to 7-1.

Your straight outs are probably good, regardless of suit.

The question is whether or not your T or 8 outs are good.

If they are and you have 9 outs its a call, if not its a fold.

Would he open limp AA or KK, or are we looking at a set?

You have 9400 left after your turn bet, so calling would leave you with 6,600 at the BB=600 level, not horrible, but you lose to ability to steal without commiting your stack.

Interesting spot.

Would this guy open limp 33, or 66 in CO-2?

If I think he would raise the small pairs to steal the blinds, I call thinking I'm against something like AA or KK on a missed limp re-raise and all my 8,9 and T outs are good.

If he's limping these hands, I probably muck and retain a better stack for pure steals.

If he didn't have so little left behind I might even conisider [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as bluff outs, but he's has to call any river bet.

As an aside, what do you think about c/r the flop.

That's usually my default move with TPMehK in the blinds as it rarely gets flat called causing me the pain of having the lead on further streets without really knowing where I am.

Was he too weak tight to count on to bet the flop if checked to?

Regards,
Woodguy

[arcticfox]

I like the check raising the flop move. I presume if he cold calls the check raise you are not investing anything else in the pot? Secondly if you check the flop and its checked around, do you bet the turn if a card smaller than a T appears, and do you bet the turn even if a card higher than a T arrives?

I will be adding the check raise with TPWK to my repertoire so thanks!

[EverettKings]

Given your read I don't know how you can't believe you're beat here. And given that you're beat, you don't have the odds to call. Muck it.

You have seven or four outs to win. We'll call it five outs since a lot of the time your three eights won't do it for you and you'll pay him off. 2250 + 1500 + 1500 + 2k + 4800 = 12050 in pot. 2800 to you. You can say its 14050 in the pot since he's likely throwing the rest in on the river if you get there. Pot odds: 5.1:1. You need about 8:1. This isn't close.

Kings

Edited because I dont add good

[allenciox]

That smallish raise on the turn is screaming "call me!!!" He wants a call here, meaning he has something powerful. He has at least top pair top kicker (w/ a flush draw). I suspect he actually has a set. I lay it down in a second.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
So he's giving you 6-1 on the call.

Since he's commited if you hit best hand you are getting the rest of his stack, so we can increase the odds to 7-1.


[/ QUOTE ]

On the other hand, if I miss, I'm pretty much committed to call a river all-in (since I'll be getting something like 7-1 on it). I think it's more correct to think about the rest of his stack as what I am playing for (and risking). If we think of it that way, I'm going to put in another 4800 to win about 15K (the 13K in the pot now plus his last 2K), so really that makes the odds worse for me (about 3-1).

I suppose I could call here and fold if I don't improve, but boy that seems like a weak way to play the river (if I've got him beat 1 time in 5, it's a very profitable call). Also, if I make 2 pair or trips, I'll certainly have to call the river and I might be beat.

[cferejohn]

I mucked. Since he had so little left, just calling and then folding to a river bet didn't seem like an option, so really I thought I had to either push or fold here. I assume a push is going to be called 100% of the time here (I don't think he was *that* weak tight). Given those assumptions, I'll be getting about 3-1 if I push and he calls (risking ~5K (the amount of chips in his raise plus his remaining stack) to get about ~15K (the amount in the pot plus his remaining stack)). Even if all 9 of my outs are good, that's not good enough to call, and there's a real possibility that only 4 of them are good.

Given my read as weak-tight, I can't imagine I'm ahead here. If I thought there was a reasonable chance that he had a smaller pair than 10 or was on a draw, I could push here. If he had significantly more chips back (say 6K or so), allowing me to extract them if I hit and fold if I miss, so much the better.

[ QUOTE ]
A hand from tonight's Stars $150+12 that I thought was interesting.

I'm in the SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Blinds 300/600 a50. Full table (9 players).

Player who I had noted as weak-tight (T8800) (he had fairly often folded his SB after several limpers when the blinds were still quite low, and every hand he'd shown down had been good) open limps from CO-2. I complete (T13,500). BB checks. Pot is 2250.

Flop is 3 6 T with 2 diamonds. I bet 1500. BB folds. Limper calls.

Turn is 7 giving me a gutshot to go with my top pair. I bet 2K. Limper raises 2800 to 4800 total (leaving him with less than 2000 back).

What do you do?

[/ QUOTE ]